Highlights

• Trafigura signed a $1.1 billion, 10-year offtake agreement with Nth Cycle to source recycled nickel and lithium carbonate starting in 2028, marking one of the largest Western commitments to recycled critical minerals.
• While battery shredding capacity has expanded in the West, refining remains the bottleneck with China controlling over 85% of global black mass processing—Nth Cycle's modular refining model targets this gap with 70% less capital intensity.
• The deal validates an alternative supply pathway that could challenge China's midstream dominance, as competition for domestic battery waste processing intensifies in what's being called 'black mass nationalism.'

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A major signal is emerging in the race to secure critical mineral supply chains: global commodities giant Trafigura (opens in a new tab) has signed a $1.1 billion, 10-year offtake agreement with U.S.-based recycler Nth Cycle (opens in a new tab), underscoring the growing strategic role of battery recycling in the West.

Beginning in 2028, Trafigura will source nickel and lithium carbonate derived from recycled “black mass”, marking one of the largest Western commitments to recycled critical minerals to date.

The Missing Middle—Refining, Not Recycling

While battery shredding capacity has expanded across the U.S. and Europe, refining remains the bottleneck, with China controlling more than 85% of global black mass processing.

Nth Cycle’s modular refining model—smaller, faster to deploy, and up to 70% less capital intensive—directly targets this gap. The company’s electro-extraction process reduces reliance on chemical-heavy, fossil-fuel-based refining systems, potentially reshaping cost structures in the West.

A New Battleground: “Black Mass Nationalism”

As governments and companies move to retain and process battery waste domestically, competition for feedstock is intensifying. This deal highlights a new strategic reality: control of recycled material flows may become as critical as primary mining.

Bottom Line

This agreement is more than a recycling deal—it is a validation of an alternative supply pathway. If scalable, it could begin to chip away at China’s midstream dominance. But the real test lies ahead: securing sufficient feedstock and proving economic viability at industrial scale.

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