Highlights

• China historically dominated 97% of rare earth element processing, with strategic control demonstrated by past export restrictions.
• Donald Trump's claim of Ukraine possessing a trillion-dollar rare earth treasure is geologically false and strategically implausible.
• The rare earth supply chain is a critical national security issue, with U.S. allies developing alternative sourcing in Australia and California.

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In a strange convergence of strategic resources, media theatrics, and geopolitical fantasy, the story of rare earth elements (REEs) has taken a sharp turn—right into the heart of the war in Ukraine. In a compelling and darkly satirical broadcast, the ABC’s Matt Bevan exposes the myth (opens in a new tab) at the center of Donald Trump’s proposed “deal” with Ukraine: that the country sits atop a trillion-dollar REE treasure trove. The problem? It’s not true.

The Power of Rare Earths—and Their Real Origin Story

Rare earth elements are vital to modern life, found in everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines to missile guidance systems and smartphones. Neodymium, one of the most critical, is used to make the high-powered magnets that power EV motors and military tech. Yet despite the name, rare earths aren’t geologically rare. What makes them “rare” is the cost, complexity, and toxicity of refining them.

Until recently, China dominated 97% of the global rare earth supply chain—not just the mining but the crucial processing stage. This dominance came into sharp focus in 2010, when a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese coast guard vessel in disputed waters near the Senkaku Islands. Japan arrested the captain; China retaliated by cutting off rare earth exports. Global prices skyrocketed, and panic rippled through industrial and defense sectors, especially in the U.S.

America’s REE Wakeup Call

The fishing boat incident was a wake-up call for the U.S. defense community, which realized its F-35 jets and smart munitions were critically dependent on Chinese REEs. Since then, efforts to develop supply alternatives have picked up. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, backed by the U.S. Department of Defense, now operates mines and processing facilities in Western Australia, Malaysia, and Texas. The U.S. is also reinvesting in Mountain Pass in California and exploring rare earth recycling—all part of a diversified strategy to reduce dependence on Beijing.

Despite low market prices, these alternative sources are real, scalable, and geopolitically aligned. China still holds the processing advantage, but a functioning “Plan B” emerges across U.S.-allied supply chains.

The Ukraine Fantasy

And then came Trump. By late 2024, he began pushing the idea that Ukraine holds vast untapped deposits of rare earths—$500 billion to $12 trillion worth—implying that U.S. support in the war could be “secured” with Ukrainian minerals. Senator Lindsey Graham helped lay the groundwork, telling media outlets that the Donbas region could become the richest REE deposit in Europe. Ukrainian President Zelensky even visited Trump Tower to discuss a post-war deal.

But there’s a major flaw: Ukraine has no economically significant rare earth deposits. Geological surveys indicate that neighboring Romania might have some potential, but Ukraine itself does not. The total global REE market is worth less than $5 billion annually. Trump's “$500 billion in rare earths” would require 100 years of total global demand—and that's if Ukraine could somehow mine a battlefield, build processing infrastructure from scratch, and replace already operational facilities in California and Australia. It's not just implausible—it’s impossible.

Mythmaking and Machiavelli—or Just Misinformation?

Bevan poses three explanations: Is Trump crafting a deal he knows Ukraine can’t fulfill to later abandon it? Is it a justification to cut off aid? Or, more troubling, is the information flow inside his camp so faulty that myths and bad intel are shaping foreign policy? Regardless, the deal being floated isn’t realpolitik—it’s geological fiction.

Rare Earths Are Strategic, But So Is Truth

The rare earth supply chain is a matter of national security. But asserting that Ukraine is an REE superpower is as absurd as saying the U.S. can secure its fighter jet program with backyard dirt; in the age of hybrid warfare, where propaganda, trade, and misinformation blur, the strategy must be grounded in verified data—not fantasy.

If America wants to lead in rare earths, the path runs through Perth and California, not Kyiv. And if the next administration is betting its foreign policy on ghost mines beneath battlefields, the cost won’t be measured in dollars—but in credibility.