Highlights

• White House claims sweeping rollback of China's critical minerals export controls.
• Independent sources confirm only a one-year suspension of October 9, 2025, measures; earlier April 2025 restrictions still apply.
• No published MOFCOM general licenses verify U.S. claims of de facto removal of gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and rare earth controls; treat as tactical pause, not structural fix.
• Investors should model a 12-month reprieve from the newest controls while maintaining licensing friction assumptions.
• Padded lead times and diversified supply strategies are advised as China's mid-stream dominance and policy volatility remain.

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The White House fact sheet (opens in a new tab) (Nov 1, 2025) calls the Busan outcome a “massive victory,” saying China will suspend the Oct 9, 2025 package and issue general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite—described as the de facto removal of April 2025 and Oct 2022 controls.  So in a nutshell, U.S. framing as equal to sweeping rollback; non-U.S. sources equal one-year suspension of the Oct 9 controls, with April 2025 limits likely still active and no Chinese general-license text yet. Treat as a tactical pause; continue de-risking but we are not out of the woods.

Independent reads don’t confirm that broader rollback. From Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) to Reuters (opens in a new tab) it was acknowledged that China agreed to delay the latest (Oct 9) controls for a year, however, earlier restrictions remain in place. China-Briefing likewise frames the outcome as a suspension of the Oct 9 measures, not a return to pre-April norms.

Why that distinction matters

The Oct 9 suite added sweeping constraints—covering equipment, technologies, extraterritorial reach, and an “Affiliates/50% Rule.” A pause helps near term, but unless Beijing formally revokes the April 4, 2025, MOFCOM update, that April baseline still governs licensing. Don’t treat press lines as law—watch for MOFCOM notices.

What’s a legitimate win?

• One-year suspension of the Oct 9 package. This removes immediate overhang from the newest, toughest measures (including tech/equipment and extraterritorial hooks) and eases short-run disruption risk for ex-China OEMs and traders. Reuters (opens in a new tab)
• De-escalation optics on tariffs & talks. The fact sheet pairs Chinese concessions with U.S. tariff adjustments/exclusions and a negotiation track—helpful for headline risk even if structural frictions remain.

Red flags & investor watchpoints

“General license” gap

Only the U.S. readout asserts broad Chinese general licenses and a de facto rollback of April/2022 controls. No Chinese regulatory text has been published to that effect; treat as unverified until MOFCOM issues binding instruments.

Extraterritorial & 50% Rule can snap back

The Oct 9 framework asserted extraterritorial jurisdiction and affiliate thresholds. A suspension is reversible; policy volatility is now structural.

Baseline is not equal to “back to normal.”

The April 4, 2025, export-control update and prior graphite/gallium/germanium regimes still define real-world licensing exposure. A one-year pause ≠ is a durable certainty. See the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (opens in a new tab).

Asymmetric leverage persists. China’s dominance in separation → metals → alloys (mid-stream) remains the system constraint; pricing/availability still hinges on Beijing’s licensing posture.

REEx bottom line (objective, investor-focused)

Mark this as a near-term de-risking, not a structural fix. Model a 12-month reprieve from the Oct 9 tightening—not a reversion to pre-April trade conditions. Until we see MOFCOM-published general licenses and explicit revocation/overhaul of April 2025 measures, keep licensing friction in your supply assumptions, pad lead times, and preserve diversified offtake options. For U.S./allied equities, the investable thesis still rests on mid-stream build-out and bankable contracts, not political headlines.

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