Highlights
- Chinese researchers analyze resource nationalism’s disruptive effects on global mineral supply chains and trade networks.
- Developed countries face welfare losses while developing nations experience significant price impacts across multiple economic sectors.
- Critical minerals concentration in resource-nationalist regions amplifies global supply chain vulnerabilities during the energy transition.
A group of social and natural scientists affiliated with China University of Geosciences, School of Economics and Management in Wuhan, China, led by economist Deyi Xu, (opens in a new tab) examine the global implications of resource nationalism—state intervention in controlling and leveraging mineral resources for economic and political gains—on the supply chains of critical minerals. Of course, nowhere has this dynamic been more apparent than in the authors’ home country of the People’s Republic of China. The research highlights the growing demand for minerals like copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, driven by the global energy transition and the push toward net-zero emissions. Using time series counterfactual analysis and input-output modeling, the authors in this study trace the ripple effects of resource nationalism across global production and trade networks, emphasizing its role in destabilizing mineral supply chains and global economic networks.
Operationalizing the Term
“Resource nationalism” refers to the tendency of governments and populations to assert control over natural resources located within their territory, often by implementing policies that limit foreign access and prioritize domestic benefits, essentially aiming to maximize the economic and strategic advantages of those resources for their own nation, sometimes at the expense of international trade and foreign investment; it can manifest as increased taxes on foreign companies extracting resources, stricter regulations, or even nationalization of resource industries.
What are key findings?
What follows is a condensed summary of the findings of this intellectual works. We include a table of key findings and comments.
| Key Findings | Comments |
|---|---|
| Uneven Impact Across Countries and Sectors | Developed countries experience higher absolute welfare losses, while developing nations in the Global South face more significant price effects, particularly in agriculture and primary manufacturing sectors. |
| Broader Industry Impact | Resource nationalism not only affects mining and metals but also spills over into other industries like food, energy, and services. |
| Diverse Manifestations | Modern resource nationalism includes export bans, tax increases, and trade protectionism, often influenced by geopolitical tensions and the economic dominance of resource-rich countries. |
| Critical Minerals Dependency | The concentration of critical minerals in regions with histories of resource nationalism, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt) and Indonesia (nickel), amplifies supply chain vulnerabilities. |
The paper underscores the need for global coordination and equitable strategies to mitigate resource nationalism’s disruptive effects on mineral markets and supply chains, particularly as the energy transition accelerates.
Some Underlying Assumptions
The Wuhan-based authors write this report with underlying assumptions guiding the effort. First the analysis assumes that the demand for critical minerals will continue to grow exponentially, driven by the energy transition and technological advancements. While this is likely, it’s not necessarily guaranteed. Rare Earth Exchanges has discussed scenarios where demand for at least some rare earth elements could stabilize, or even decline.
The paper’s authors presume that resource nationalism consistently leads to significant disruptions in global supply chains and price volatility, without considering instances of successful mitigation. And we suggest the study assumes that geopolitical factors primarily drive resource nationalism, potentially underestimating local social or environmental concerns that may also influence such policies.
What about underlying biases?
Interestingly, the authors bring a particular point of view or paradigm, and they focus on the negative impacts of resource nationalism despite their own nation’s ongoing government-orchestrated effort to develop and reinforce a monopoly over the entire globe’s rare earth refinement and production.
Yet for this massive, centralized domination at the same time, the Chinese need openness for global engagement, diversification of access to raw materials, and the like. Put another way, they need open markets, and free trade at the core for the state-owned operation to continue recreating its own dominant power position.
For the current model, resource nationalism is not conducive to optimized growth or reinforcement of overall production complex controls.
The paper predominantly emphasizes the adverse effects of resource nationalism, such as supply chain disruptions and welfare losses, without fully exploring potential benefits for resource-rich nations, such as increased revenue or development opportunities.
The analysis prioritizes the impact on industrialized nations while treating the losses in developing countries as secondary, potentially downplaying their socio-economic consequences.
Although environmental degradation is acknowledged, the study does not deeply analyze the ecological justifications for resource nationalism in some regions, the true horrific economical losses imposed by the negative externalities.
The analysis treats resource nationalism as a uniform phenomenon, potentially overlooking variations in motivations and implementations across different countries and contexts.
This comprehensive study contributes to understanding the global economic ramifications of resource nationalism but avoids how the Chinese government may have fostered and promoted this very trend. Perhaps the paper would benefit from a more balanced perspective that considers regional nuances and the potential advantages of such policies for resource-rich nations, plus study of how China national state actions have spurred various regional reactions.
Daniel
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