Highlights

• DeepTech Asia projects robotics markets from $100B+ segments by 2030 (aerial, warehouse, software) to $1T+ humanoids post-2035, but omits critical materials intensity analysis.
• Every robot relies on rare earth permanent magnets (NdPr, Dy/Tb, SmCo) for motion—scaling hardware means scaling magnet demand, especially for actuator-dense humanoids.
• Supply chain risks including China-dominant magnet processing, heavy rare earth bottlenecks, and Dy/Tb price volatility remain unaddressed in valuation-forward robotics forecasts.

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Robotics is not a single market. It spans warehouse automation, aerial and marine systems, autonomous driving, service robots, medical robotics, laboratory automation, industrial arms, and—over a longer horizon—humanoids.

Rare Earth Exchanges™ reviewed a recent report (opens in a new tab) from DeepTech Asia delineating by segments by time horizon:

5-Year Horizon (~2030)

• Aerial & marine robots ($100B+)
• Warehouse robots ($50B+)
• Robotics software ($50B+)
• Robotic arms (~$10B)

10-Year Horizon (~2035)

• Autonomous driving ($500B+)
• Service robots ($100B+)
• Medical robots ($100B+)
• Hardware components (<$100B)
• Laboratory robots (<$100B)

25-Year Horizon (post-2035)

• Humanoids ($1T+)

 These are explicitly framed as best-case scenarios and assume favorable execution, capital access, and regulatory conditions.

The Materials Subtext: Every Robot Is an Actuator

The report does not address materials intensity. That omission matters.

Robots convert electrical energy into motion. Motion at high precision and torque density typically relies on rare earth permanent magnets, particularly:

• NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) for mainstream high-performance NdFeB motors
• Dy/Tb (dysprosium/terbium) where thermal stability and coercivity are required
• SmCo (samarium-cobalt) in high-temperature or aerospace niches

Warehouse bots may be modest in magnet intensity per unit.

Autonomous vehicles and aerial systems increase motor count and performance demands.

Humanoids—if ever scaled—multiply actuator density dramatically.

The valuation narrative implicitly assumes hardware scale. Hardware scale implies magnet scale.

Where Optimism Outruns Friction

The author notes these are upside scenarios and does not model downside risks. However, several constraints deserve emphasis:

• Commoditization pressure in service and hardware segments
• Heavy rare earth supply bottlenecks (Dy/Tb concentration risk)
• China-dominant magnet processing capacity
• Field maintenance economics and warranty exposure
• Certification and liability drag in medical and autonomous systems

The report is not misleading—but it is valuation-forward, not supply-chain-forward.

Diligence Questions Rarely Asked

1. What isthe magnet mass per unit across segments?
2. How sensitive are margins to Dy/Tb price volatility?
3. Are ferrite substitutions viable without degrading torque density?
4. Who qualifies the motor suppliers—and where are the magnets sintered?
5. Does scaling humanoids create a step-change in rare earth demand intensity?

Robotics may mint billion-dollar companies.

But assuming no mass disruptive non-rare earth technology, magnets will determine how expensive the future of motion becomes.