Highlights
- Australia and the US may be considering a high-level rare earth elements alliance that could reshape global supply chains.
- 78% of US weapons systems rely on Chinese-sourced rare earths.
- A minerals-for-tech pact could reduce Western dependence on China.
- The emerging geopolitical landscape suggests critical minerals are becoming a key battleground in 21st-century statecraft.
Some diplomatic rumblings within the Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) network suggest that Australia and the United States may be considering a high-level alliance on rare earth elements (REE)—one that could reshape global supply chains. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (opens in a new tab) was reportedly scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump (opens in a new tab) on the sidelines of the 2025 G7 summit in Canada—their first face-to-face encounter. Were critical minerals on the agenda? That remains unclear. What is known is that President Trump abruptly left the summit early, citing the mounting conflict between Israel and Iran, where ceasefire negotiations reportedly required his immediate attention.
Multiple media outlets confirm Trump’s early departure, which caused the cancellation of several bilateral meetings, including the one with Albanese. While some critics in Australia’s opposition called it a diplomatic setback, the Albanese government deemed the exit understandable under the circumstances. Trump also declined to sign the G7’s joint de-escalation statement and took to social media to issue direct warnings to Iran. The sudden pivot underscored shifting U.S. foreign policy priorities and left a visible gap in Australia’s ability to engage directly with the White House during a global crisis.
What’s the Chatter?
Amid rising tensions over China’s near-monopoly on rare earth element (REE) processing, some anonymous diplomatic and industry sources have speculated that Albanese may be positioning Australia’s vast critical mineral reserves as leverage in potential trade and defense negotiations with the Trump administration. With critical minerals now widely referred to as the “new oil” of the tech economy, some wonder: could these rumored discussions form the basis for a formal trilateral alliance between the U.S., Australia, and the UK?
The stakes would be considerable. An estimated 78% of U.S. weapons systems rely on Chinese-sourced rare earths, and Beijing’s recent export controls on materials like samarium have already disrupted defense supply lines. In theory, a minerals-for-tech pact between allies could mark a milestone in reducing Western dependence on China—for both economic and military security. But to be clear, no official confirmation exists of such a deal being proposed or negotiated.
Australia’s two top REE producers—Lynas Rare Earths (opens in a new tab) (ranked #1 on the REEx project database) and Arafura Rare Earths (opens in a new tab)—are already partially integrated into U.S. and allied supply chains. Lynas is building a Defense Department-supported refinery in Texas, while Arafura’s Nolans project has attracted investment from U.S.-aligned nations and defense OEMs. Additionally, the U.S. has designated Australia a domestic supplier under the Defense Production Act, and Canberra has pledged more than A$1.8 billion in financing to expand REE processing capacity.
REEx notes that Australia’s Gina Rinehart, (opens in a new tab) the world’s most prolific rare earth investor, has ownership positions in key companies on both sides of the Pacific. She also happens to have close ties with President Trump (opens in a new tab).
Still, chatter does not equal reality. There is no public evidence that a formal “minerals-for-arms” alliance has been tabled or drafted. And if such a pact were to materialize, it would carry strategic consequences, potentially drawing Australia further into the U.S.–China rivalry. From Canberra’s point of view, that might threaten long-term strategic autonomy. Yet if no such deal is explored, Australia could miss a rare window to secure long-term access to the vast U.S. market, especially as Washington accelerates efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains.
For now, this remains informed speculation. However, in the current geopolitical climate, the alignment of defense, technology, and minerals is no longer hypothetical—it has become the battleground of 21st-century statecraft. Whether this rumored alliance solidifies or evaporates, the world is watching.
Verified facts:
- Trump did leave the G7 early (confirmed by Reuters, ABC, and other outlets).
- Critical minerals were included in G7 agenda documents.
- No meeting was confirmed between Trump and Albanese.
- No formal Australia–U.S. REE alliance has been announced.
- Australia is treated as a domestic REE source under U.S. Defense Production Act.
- Lynas and Arafura are heavily backed by Australian and allied financing.
- Gina Rinehart, likely the world’s most influential rare earth investor, could be a unique bond between an American-Aussie pact
Leave a Reply