Highlights

• China-backed Simandou megaproject has begun shipping iron ore after decades of delays.
• The project features a railway over 650 km long and a deepwater port.
• The system is valued at over $20 billion and could reshape global iron ore supply dynamics and pricing power.
• The U.S.-framed Liberty Corridor aims to counter Simandou by routing high-grade Nimba ore through Liberia to Buchanan port.
• Construction for the Liberty Corridor is targeted for early 2026 with initial exports planned for 2027.
• The Liberty Corridor faces political scrutiny and UNESCO environmental concerns.
• Guinea is leveraging superpower rivalry to monetize its iron reserves.
• Guinea holds a 15% stake in Simandou infrastructure.
• Simandou has an operational advantage as functioning infrastructure compared to Liberty's credible but still-developing route.

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Guinea’s iron belt is becoming a live-fire exercise in 21st-century power: not tanks, but track; not aircraft carriers, but ports. The Simandou megaproject (opens in a new tab)—years delayed, now finally shipping ore—has opened a new export artery built around Chinese capital and Chinese demand. Meanwhile, a rival concept, the “Liberty Corridor,” is designed to route ultra-high-grade ore from Guinea’s Nimba region through Liberia into U.S. and allied supply chains—structuring an alternative to the new Trans-Guinean system. The map looks like a simple split-screen rivalry. The reality is a struggle over who controls the chokepoints.

Simandou: The China-Backed Megaproject That Finally Started Moving

Simandou is no longer a theoretical “world-class deposit.” After decades of delays, the first cargoes have shipped in late 2025—marking the end of an era of promises and the beginning of one of the most consequential new iron ore flows in the world.

The basic facts are staggering: an about $20B+ integrated system anchored by 650+ km of heavy-haul railway and a deepwater port in the Moribaya/Morebaya area, engineered to move high-grade ore from Guinea’s forested southeast to the Atlantic. Guinea holds 15% stakes in mines and infrastructure (and has been reported to hold participation rights tied to downstream plans as well), giving Conakry formal leverage inside the system it fought to unify.

Why Beijing cares is equally plain: Simandou is expected to reshape global supply dynamics and pricing power. Major reporting describes it as a market-moving project, and China has long sought greater leverage against dependence on a narrow set of dominant exporters. Simandou doesn’t just add ore; it adds a new corridor.

Liberty Corridor: The U.S.-Framed Countermove Through Liberia

About 160 km from Simandou sits Kon Kweni in the Nimba region—ore that Ivanhoe Atlantic and sympathetic commentators describe as among the highest-grade undeveloped resources. The Liberty Corridor is the political and logistical thesis built around it: rail the ore south through Liberia to Buchanan port, reducing reliance on Guinea’s Trans-Guinean route associated with Simandou.

Here, the fact pattern is crisp: Liberia has ratified a key concession and access agreement granting Ivanhoe Atlantic access to the government-owned Yekepa–Buchanan line for Guinea-origin exports. Multiple reports describe this as part of a shift toward multi-user, independently operated rail, with environmental and regulatory reviews underway and construction targeted for early 2026, aiming for initial exports in 2027.

Ivanhoe Atlantic’s (opens in a new tab) stated ambition is staged: early volumes (often described as “up to” ~5 Mt/y) and a longer-term ramp toward much larger throughput, with the “Liberty Corridor” brand tied to roughly $1.8B in infrastructure build/upgrade narratives.

The Hidden Battleground: Legitimacy, ESG, and “Who Owns the Story?”

Liberty’s “America First” pitch creates friction as well as momentum. A U.S. lawmaker, Rep. John Moolenaar, publicly raised concerns about alleged China ties—claims Ivanhoe Atlantic has rejected—illustrating how geopolitics can complicate financing and political sponsorship even for a project marketed as a China counterweight.

Then there’s Nimba. The Mount Nimba Strict Nature Reserve has been on UNESCO’s “World Heritage in Danger” list since 1992, with mining among the cited threats. NGOs and conservation groups have urged stronger protections, meaning permitting risk is not a footnote—it is the schedule.

Strategic Implications for West vs. China Access

This isn’t “China gets Simandou, America gets Liberty.” It’s Guinea (and Liberia) testing how to monetize rivalry. Simandou is already a functioning spine of rail and port—hard power in steelmaking terms. Liberty is a credible alternative route that could diversify buyers and bargaining power, but it remains exposed to political scrutiny and environmental constraints. The decisive advantage, for now, belongs to whoever controls the operational infrastructure today—and Simandou has started moving.

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