Sino-Centric View: Trump 2.0 and the Rare Earth Chessboard

Aug 14, 2025

Highlights

  • China Daily Global commentary frames US-China competition as strategically disadvantageous for Washington.
  • Emphasizes rare earth export controls.
  • US actively countering potential rare earth supply pressures through:
    • Diversification
    • Domestic processing
    • Strategic stockpiling efforts
  • The ongoing resource competition represents a dynamic geopolitical chess match with long-term supply chain implications for both nations.

The China Daily Global commentary (opens in a new tab) by Lau Siu-kai frames U.S.โ€“China competition as a losing game for Washington, with rare earths cast as one of Beijingโ€™s most effective counterpunches. The piece argues that Trumpโ€™s renewed tariffs, tech bans, and alliance pressure are futile โ€” and that Chinaโ€™s resource leverage, particularly in critical minerals, has already blunted U.S. ambitions.

The Bedrock: Where the Facts Hold

Itโ€™s true that China has used rare earth export controls as a geopolitical tool โ€”dysprosium and terbium curbs, for instance, jolted global magnet markets. Itโ€™s also accurate that China remains the dominant processor of REEs, giving it real ability to pressure downstream industries, including U.S. defense and clean tech. Washingtonโ€™s designation of China as its โ€œNo. 1 strategic adversaryโ€ and the bipartisan push for tech decoupling are likewise well documented. The observation that other nations often balance U.S. ties with continued China trade is supported by import/export data: China is the largest trading partner for more countries than the U.S.

Fault Lines: Assertions Without Anchors

Where the piece drifts from evidence is in sweeping claims that the U.S. โ€œfailedโ€ in its tariff and technology war and โ€œwithdrew most sanctionsโ€ on China โ€” no public record confirms such a broad rollback. The portrayal of Chinaโ€™s rare earth restrictions as decisively crippling U.S. high-tech and military sectors is overstated; while they caused price volatilityโ€”and certainly some discomfort and more among military contractors-- the U.S. has been actively stockpiling, diversifying supply, and funding domestic processing. The suggestion that dollar hegemony is unraveling primarily because of anti-China policy ignores broader macro drivers like fiscal policy, debt dynamics, and competing reserve currencies.

The Framing: A One-Way Street

This is not neutral analysis โ€” itโ€™s an op-ed in Chinaโ€™s flagship state media, aimed at discrediting U.S. strategy and casting Beijing as the inevitable winner. Trump is described as โ€œunpredictable, arbitrary, predatory,โ€ the U.S. as a โ€œrogue state,โ€ and China as the cooperative, market-opening alternative. The absence of any acknowledgment of Chinaโ€™s own economic headwinds, overcapacity in rare earths, or potential backlash to resource weaponization signals a single-narrative approach rather than balanced commentary.

Investor Takeaway

Rare earth leverage is real, but the chessboard is dynamic. U.S. policy may be clumsy at times, but diversification efforts โ€” from MP Materials to Lynas, to Canadian and African plays โ€” are eroding Chinaโ€™s monopoly over time.ย  Yes, Rare Earth Exchanges has gone on the record that if President Trump does not intensify critical mineral industrial policy, America will likely never catch up. Plus, we have declared that in parallel, America must be on future innovation as well, downstream.

For investors, the China Daily piece is a window into how Beijing wants the story told abroad: that resource pressure is working. The reality is more nuanced, with both sides locked in a long-term supply chain arms race.

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By Daniel

Inspired to launch Rare Earth Exchanges in part due to his lifelong passion for geology and mineralogy, and patriotism, to ensure America and free market economies develop their own rare earth and critical mineral supply chains.

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