Highlights

• Chinese companies reroute rare earth mineral exports through third countries like Thailand and Mexico to circumvent U.S. export restrictions.
• Imports of 'non-Chinese' antimony oxide have tripled, with trade data revealing sophisticated workaround strategies.
• The current supply chain method is unsustainable, highlighting the need for domestic mineral production and transparent international partnerships.

Reuters has uncovered a rare earth cat-and-mouse game: U.S. companies are still receiving Chinese-origin critical minerals, just not directly. Since China’s December 2024 ban on exports of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the U.S., trade data show a sharp rise in imports from unlikely sources like Thailand and Mexico. The catch? These countries don’t mine these minerals at scale. What they do have—at least in Thailand’s case—are Chinese-owned smelters rerouting exports under the radar.

The report is grounded, well-documented, and deeply revealing: Transshipment is happening, and enforcement is messy. Chinese companies, eager to profit from global shortages, are moving metal through friendly third countries with re-labeled manifests and creative shipping strategies. U.S. law doesn’t prohibit this—yet. The result? Imports of “non-Chinese” antimony oxide have surged to triple historic levels. But the ore’s fingerprints trace back east.

For investors, the key signal is this: The market is adapting faster than the regulators. Short-term supply has been patched through backdoor deals, but at higher prices and legal risk. This patchwork isn’t sustainable. Beijing is cracking down, and Washington may follow. Reliance on opaque, offshore shell games is no substitute for domestic resilience and transparent allies-based supply chains.

Don't mistake this workaround as a solution. It’s a symptom of a fractured system trying to hold itself together with duct tape. The long-term winners will be the companies building capacity, not dodging it.

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