• S&P Global projects 3.2% GDP growth in 2026 with selective strength in critical minerals — copper up 14.5% and cobalt up 57% on supply constraints, while lithium faces oversupply despite a 55% price increase.
• China's rare earth dominance persists with 91% processing control and 94% magnet production share, while 150+ ex-China greenfield projects won't shift downstream magnet security in 2026.
• Policy trumps geology in 2026 critical minerals markets — export controls, trade tensions, and AI infrastructure demand create bifurcated outcomes rather than a broad commodity supercycle.

So what are the macro backdrop?  Stable growth, selective tailwinds. S&P (opens in a new tab) projects ~3.2% global GDP growth in 2026, supported by AI-related capital investment, easing financial conditions, and lower oil prices. The U.S. dollar may face modest downside pressure amid anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

For critical minerals, this macro mix matters:

• A softer dollar typically supports dollar-denominated commodities (macroinference).
• AI-driven infrastructure expansion structurally benefits copper and aluminum demand; rare earth magnet demand linkage is plausible but not explicitly quantified by S&P (REEx interpretation).
• Trade unpredictability introduces supply-chain risk premiums.

This is not a broad commodity super cycle. It is a policy-sensitive, bifurcated market.

Rare Earths: Structural Power, Limited Price Transparency

The report provides no explicit rare earth oxide price forecasts (e.g., NdPr, Dy, Tb), but it clearly frames the structural environment:

• China controls 69% of mined supply
• China controls 91% of processed supply
• China controls 94% of magnet production
• April 2025 export controls remain in effect
• Expanded October 2025 measures delayed until November 2027
• Over 150 greenfield projects outside China (report shows 161 total)
• Exploration budgets up more than 200% since 2020

What This Means

Greenfield mining does not equal MagnetSecurity. Industrial-scale separation and magnet alloying remain concentrated in China’s solvent extraction ecosystem.

REEx view: Rare earth pricing in 2026 is increasingly influenced by export licensing, state policy, and industrial strategy rather than purely cyclical spot demand.

No visible 2026 supply surge meaningfully shifts downstream magnet security outside China.

Battery Metals: Diverging Signals

Cobalt

S&P’s base-case forecast (distinct from the consensus table) projects:

• $26.20/lb (+57% YoY)
• Tightness driven by DRC export disruptions and the quota system

The report notes US interest in securing DRC-linked supply via allied refining.

REEx interpretation: This geopolitical framing supports a risk premium narrative.

Lithium

• $14,876/t lithium carbonate (+55.4% YoY)
• Energy storage growth expected to slow to ~5% in 2026 after a 54% surge in 2025
• Oversupply pressures persist despite the late-2025 rally

S&P explicitlycautions that exuberance may be excessive.

Lithium’s 2026 move appears cyclical rather than structurally constrained.

Graphite

• $435/t flake graphite (+6.6% YoY)
• China export controls and pending US antidumping duties are key drivers

Diversification projects remain at an early stage; the 2026 supply structure remains China-dominant.

Base Metals: Copper Leads Electrification Narrative

Copper

• $11,415/t (+14.5% YoY)
• 543,000 t concentrate deficit
• 315,000 t refined surplus
• US-centered buying and stockpiling noted

Copper is the clearest structural winner in this outlook.

Nickel

• $17,608/t (+14.6% YoY)
• Market remains oversupplied despite Indonesia quota cuts

Aluminum

• $2,614/t (-0.9% YoY)
• Slight surplus expected despite AI-related demand narrative

What the Report Does Not Provide

Notably absent:

• NdPr oxide pricing outlook
• Heavy rare earth separation economics
• Magnet alloy premium projections
• Detailed ex-China processing ramp timelines

The report emphasizes structural concentration but stops short of quantifying forward rare earth price scenarios.

Strategic Takeaways for REEx Readers

1. Copper and cobalt reflect geopolitical overlays.
2. Lithium’s rally faces demand moderation risk.
3. Rare earth supply chain concentration remains extreme.
4. Mine announcements do not equal separation capacity.
5. Policy, not geology, defines rare earth leverage in 2026.

Bottom Line

2026 is shaping up as a year of selective strength across critical minerals.

Rare earths remain the most strategically constrained segment — not because of ore scarcity, but because processing and magnet manufacturing remain overwhelmingly centralized.

That dynamic has not materially changed heading into 2026.

Source: Metals Price Outlook 2026 (opens in a new tab), S&P Global Market Intelligence & S&P Global Energy