Highlights
- Major banks like Mizuho, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo are sharply reducing Tesla’s price target due to weaker-than-expected demand across key markets.
- Tesla’s stock has fallen over 5%, with delivery forecasts drastically reduced to 1.8 million units in 2025, signaling potential challenges in the EV market.
- The decline may have broader implications for rare earth markets, with potential softening of prices for critical magnetic materials used in electric vehicle motors.
According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), Mizuho has joined JPMorgan and Wells Fargo in sharply reducing Tesla’s price target amid deepening demand concerns and geopolitical headwinds. Mizuho cut its target from $515 to $430, citing weaker-than-expected demand, especially in major markets like the U.S., Europe, and China.
According to the Chinese metals focused media (opens in a new tab), Tesla’s stock fell over 5% on Monday to $237.44, marking a near 40% decline year-to-date—far underperforming the S&P 500. Mizuho now forecasts 1.8 million vehicle deliveries for 2025 and 2.3 million for 2026, significantly below previous estimates. Competition in China and underwhelming sales of the updated Model Y are compounding the pressure.
Notably, the report attributes part of the brand’s decline to “deteriorating geopolitics” and Elon Musk’s controversial political involvement, which may be eroding brand perception. Mizuho’s $430 target remains well above the current Wall Street consensus of $367 (Visible Alpha), highlighting possible optimism compared to more bearish peers like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, which set targets as low as $130 and $120. The article, translated from the Chinese financial outlet CLS, appears factual but subtly frames Tesla’s political risks and U.S.-China tensions as central culprits—suggesting a possible geopolitical bias aligned with Chinese strategic narratives.
Tesla’s stumble isn’t just a red flag for electric vehicles—it’s a tremor felt deep in the rare earth markets. With deliveries slashed to 1.8 million units for 2025, the demand for critical magnetic materials like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium will likely get hit. These elements, essential for the high-performance motors that power Teslas, could soften prices in the short term, especially if rivals fail to pick up the slack. The signal seems clear to the clear-headed. The once-relentless EV surge may be leveling off, dragging a critical slice of the rare earth demand curve down with it.
Rare Earth Exchanges predicted a decline in the electrical vehicle market Donald Trump’s victory taking the U.S. presidency. Exiting the Paris Agreement, cutting electric vehicle targets and the like were undoubtedly going to have some impact.
Meanwhile, China tightens its grip. As Tesla weathers political blowback and trade war threats, and President Trump just ordered a critical minerals executive order via a wartime-like posture, Chinese automakers like BYD and XPeng push forward, vertically integrating rare earth supply chains and scaling production.
Ex-China collaborations are emerging, forming supply chains, but they are just in the beginning stages.
This divergence may widen the chasm between East and West. For Western rare earth developers, especially those still pitching EV-driven growth, the chill in investor sentiment could mean delays, down rounds, or a strategic pivot toward more stable markets—defense, wind energy, or grid technologies. Could Tesla’s slide be more than a stock chart dip, but in fact, a strategic inflection point for global rare earths?
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