The Great Omission-Why the Real Rare Earth Story Lies Beyond the Headlines

Highlights

• CNBC segment by Fedwatch Advisors and Wharton's Jeremy Siegel highlights U.S. rare earth dependence and China's dominance.
• The segment omits Malaysia's Lynas plant, the only major non-Chinese separator proving scaled refining is possible outside China.
• The real challenge isn't geology but industrial coordination.
• U.S. and allied processing facilities are scaling (Energy Fuels, Lynas USA, Ucore).
• Private capital is mobilizing, evidenced by JPMorgan's $10B critical minerals pledge.
• Washington is shifting toward industrial policy.
• Investors should look beyond binary China-versus-U.S. narratives.
• Opportunities exist across the tri-continental supply chain spanning Australian mines, Malaysian refineries, and emerging processors in Brazil, Africa, and North America.

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In a brisk six-minute CNBC segment (opens in a new tab), Fedwatch Advisors’ Ben Emons and Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel lament America’s rare earth dependence, calling it “scandalous” that the U.S. lacks a national reserve. Their comments, timed with JPMorgan’s $1.5 trillion “Security and Resiliency” plan—including billion for critical minerals—made for good television: Wall Street meets national security. But once the cameras cut, what remained was a familiar blend of half-truths, omissions, and misplaced emphasis.

A leading rare earth expert once told us, early in Rare Earth Exchanges’ history, that nearly every U.S. news story on this subject contains at least some inaccuracies. This has proven to be the case.

On the Money

Yes, the U.S. produces only a sliver of global rare earths—roughly 1–2% of supply, almost all from MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine. Yes, China dominates, producing around 270,000 metric tons annually, with near-total control over heavy rare earth separation—the kind needed for F-35 jets and precision-guided munitions.

And yes, developing new capacity, such as Greenland’s Kvanefjeld or Tanbreez deposits, takes seven to ten years—longer still under Western permitting regimes.

The warnings about 2027—when U.S. defense supply chains must eliminate Chinese rare earths—are not alarmist. Pentagon stockpiles could indeed deplete by the decade’s end.

What They Missed—The Malaysia Factor

The glaring omission? Malaysia. For decades, Malaysia’s Lynas Advanced Materials Plant in Kuantan has been the only major non-Chinese rare earth separator, processing feedstock from Australia into globally traded oxides. It’s proof that non-Chinese refining exists—and scales—when policy, capital, and local cooperation align.

See Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) analyses on this critically important Southeast Asian nation. See “What Moves will Malaysia Make given its Bold Ambitious Rare Earth Plans? But Also a Reality of a Trade War Between China and USA_” plus “China Malaysia Rare Earth Processing Talks—President Trump Needs to Invest in Malaysia_.”

Ignoring Malaysia flattens the narrative into a binary—China versus the U.S.—when the real story is a tri-continental web stretching from Australian mines to Malaysian refineries to Japanese magnet lines. The West’s challenge isn’t the absence of geology—it’s the coordination of policy, capital, and processing know-how.

Between Alarm and Opportunity

The CNBC segment flirts with economic fatalism—“we don’t have heavy rare earths, so we must turn to Greenland”—while missing the broader momentum:

• U.S. and allied processing: Energy Fuels in Utah, Lynas USA in Texas, and Ucore in Alaska are scaling midstream capacity, and of course, big bets have been made on MP Materials.
• Private capital awakening: JPMorgan’s pledge reflects what REEx readers already see—a shift from defense-driven panic to investor-driven opportunity.
• A cultural change in Washington DC with incremental embrace of elements of industrial policy.

The real race isn’t geological—it’s industrial orchestration.

Rare Earth Exchanges is aware of innovative deal-making in Malaysia at this point.  The USA could disrupt Chinese plans in that nation.

Also mattering are places like Australia (think Lynas, Arafura, Northern Minerals, and others); Brazil (Brazilian Rare Earth, Serra Verde, and others), and Africa (Pensana and myriad other opportunities), to name just a handful.

FinalTake

Cable news thrives on urgency. But rare earths are a story of endurance. The U.S. isn’t devoid of options—it’s short on patience. Malaysia’s quiet centrality, Western midstream progress, and private capital’s entry all hint at a rebalanced future. Investors who can see beyond the headlines will spot the signal in the geopolitical noise.

Citation: CNBC “Squawk Box,” Interview with Ben Emons, Oct. 2025.

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