Highlights

• The U.S. is projected to meet 95% of its domestic magnet rare earth demand by 2030.
• China will still dominate 60% of global supply, leaving the rest of the world competing for the remaining 40%.
• Even with aggressive industrial policy and dozens of new mining projects, the U.S. remains at least 10 years from capturing 50% global market share due to geological constraints, equipment dependencies on China, and critical workforce shortages.
• The West's heavy rare earth separation bottleneck persists with 90%+ dependence on China through the 2030s.
• Magnet production equipment and processing consumables continue to be sourced from Chinese suppliers.

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A new Reuters analysis (opens in a new tab) suggests the United States is on track to meet 95% of its own magnet rare earth demand domestically by 2030. It sounds like a geopolitical victory—until the global math enters the room. According to the same International Energy Agency (IEA)-derived projections, China will still control roughly 60% of the world’s magnet-making rare earth supply by 2030, while the rest of the world, even with dozens of new mines and refineries, fights over the remaining 40%.

Rare Earth Exchanges’ own modeling offers an even starker conclusion: even under a supercharged industrial policy—price floors, tax credits, Defense Production Act and other Department of War expansions, and aggressive permitting reform—the U.S. remains at least 10 years away from capturing 50% global market share. And that assumes perfect execution—historically not America’s strong suit in strategic materials.

Pipeline Promises and Real-World Physics

Reuters is accurate in noting the global buildout: MP Materials, Lynas Blue Line, Iluka/Fluor Eneabba, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels, Noveon Magnetics, and a constellation of emerging midstream projects. But the article softens the harder truth: geology, metallurgy, and workforce deficiencies impose hard governors on U.S. acceleration.

Mines and refineries take 7–12 years to build. Magnet plants require hyper-specialized equipment overwhelmingly sourced from China. Making magnets is hard and any project plans should be padded for inevitable delays.  Skilled REE chemists and metallurgists are in short supply. And critically, the Reuters analysis focuses only on four light rare earths—Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb—omitting the West’s near-total reliance on China for heavy rare earth separation, a bottleneck that persists into the 2030s. Many magnets require small, even trace amounts of these heavies.

The Missing Chapters

What Reuters understates—but experts know—is the fragility of the U.S. timeline. Even if the current pipeline succeeds:

• Heavy REE separation remains 90%+ dependent on China.
• China’s magnet industry is scaling faster than the West’s ability to catch up (this includes downstream innovation as evidenced by patents and other data points)
• Equipment, reagents, and processing consumables are still sourced from China.

Put simply, the U.S. is building a supply chain while, to some extent, still importing the tools to build it.

For Investors: Tempered Optimism, Not Triumphalism

The West will make progress, and the USA is clearly ahead of Europe, which seems to have lost its way from an industrial policy perspective.  China’s dominance will narrow—but not collapse. The U.S. can secure domestic demand long before it becomes a true global producer. But a 50% market share remains a distant milestone (say a decade), not an imminent horizon of just a few years away.

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