The Shift to Unmanned Military Assets: A Rare Earth Demand Surge

Key Takeaways:

• The transition from large, high-cost military assets to mass-produced, smaller unmanned systems is significantly increasing demand for Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr).
• Land, sea, and air forces are shifting towards drones, autonomous systems, and robotic units, each requiring multiple times the amount of rare earth magnets compared to traditional platforms.
• By 2027, all U.S. military acquisitions must be free from Chinese supply chains, adding further pressure on ex-China rare earth production.

The Military’s Evolution: From Large Platforms to Mass Deployment

Global militaries are undergoing a major transformation. Historically, military power was built around a few large, high-cost platforms—fighter jets like the F-35, naval destroyers, and heavily armored tanks. Today, the focus is shifting toward smaller, autonomous, and expendable assets, allowing for greater battlefield flexibility, swarm tactics, and cost efficiency.

This shift is not only changing military strategy but also driving up demand for NdPr, a key material for high-performance rare earth magnets used in electric motors, sensors, and weapons systems. The transition from large, singular assets to hundreds or thousands of autonomous systems means a drastic increase in total rare earth consumption.

Air: From F-35s to Drone Swarms

The F-35 Lightning II, one of the most advanced fighter jets, contains 417 kg of rare earth materials, with a significant portion being NdPr for its powerful electric actuators and radar systems.

However, militaries are increasingly relying on loyal wingman drones, autonomous aerial strike units, and reconnaissance UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). These drones, while individually smaller, are being deployed in far greater numbers than traditional jets.

• A single MQ-9 Reaper drone uses approximately 10-15 kg of NdPr in its magnet-based propulsion systems and sensors.
• The emerging XQ-58 Valkyrie loyal wingman drone—designed to complement manned aircraft—also relies heavily on NdPr-powered electric actuators and flight controls.
• Swarm drones, deployed in the hundreds, use smaller electric motors, each requiring 2-5 kg of NdPr, but their sheer volume means overall demand could exceed that of traditional aircraft fleets.

While the F-35 program may be slowing, the combined demand from hundreds of drones replacing each jet means that overall NdPr requirements in the air sector could increase by 3-5 times.

Land: Robotic Warfare and Autonomous Vehicles

Heavy battle tanks and armored vehicles have historically relied on internal combustion engines, with minimal rare earth magnet usage. The U.S. M1 Abrams tank, for example, uses less than 10 kg of NdPr, primarily in its sensors and auxiliary systems.

The shift toward smaller, robotic ground units is driving an entirely different demand profile:

• Autonomous drone tanks, such as Russia’s Marker UGV and the U.S. Army’s Ripsaw M5, use hybrid-electric or fully electric propulsion, requiring 50-100 kg of NdPr per vehicle.
• Combat robots and logistics support units, often operating in large numbers, each contain 5-20 kg of NdPr for mobility and actuator systems.
• Portable drone carriers, which transport and deploy aerial or ground drones, further contribute to NdPr demand.

Given that dozens of robotic systems could replace a single main battle tank, the overall demand for NdPr in land-based military assets could increase 5-7 times compared to traditional vehicle fleets.

Sea: Naval Warfare’s Shift to Unmanned Vessels

Naval warfare is also undergoing a major transformation, with large, crewed warships being supplemented by autonomous surface and underwater vehicles.

• The U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyer contains over 2,500 kg of rare earth materials, including NdPr in electric motors, radars, and weapons guidance systems.
• In contrast, the emerging Large Unmanned Surface Vessel (LUSV) and Extra-Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (XLUUV) programs will deploy hundreds of smaller, more agile assets.
• A typical XLUUV uses 250-500 kg of NdPr, while small underwater drones may use 10-50 kg.

While individual ships contain far more rare earth materials than drones, the exponential increase in the number of autonomous vessels means that total NdPr demand for naval applications could rise 2-4 times.

The 2027 Deadline: Ex-China Military Supply Chains

Compounding the growing demand for rare earths is a critical geopolitical shift: by 2027, all U.S. military acquisitions must be free from Chinese supply chains. This policy aims to eliminate China’s dominance over rare earth refining and magnet production, which currently accounts for over 85% of global supply.

This deadline is forcing the rapid expansion of ex-China NdPr production, including new refining capacity in the U.S., Australia, and Europe. However, the scale of demand increase—driven by the transition to unmanned warfare—means that Western governments must ensure long-term supply security through strategic stockpiling, domestic processing, and supply chain investments.

Conclusion: A New Era for Military Rare Earth Demand

The ongoing shift from large, crewed military assets to drones, robots, and autonomous vehicles is starting to cause a surge in NdPr demand. While older platforms like the F-35 and Abrams tanks used rare earth materials in limited quantities, the move toward swarm drones, robotic combat units, and autonomous ships is driving a multi-fold increase in total NdPr consumption across land, sea, and air domains.

With the 2027 U.S. ex-China supply chain mandate on the horizon, securing a stable rare earth supply will be critical for Western defense strategies. Governments and industry players must act now to expand non-China refining and magnet production to support the future of modern warfare.