The Space Race Under the Rocket: Why China's Mineral Machine May Threaten America's Orbital Lead

Highlights

• SpaceX leads global launch cadence with 76 Falcon 9 missions by late June 2026, but its ~$1.75 trillion IPO valuation prices in futures not yet delivered.
• China controls roughly 90% of rare earth permanent magnets and has weaponized export controls on gallium, germanium, and graphite—critical inputs for rockets and satellites.
• China's private space ecosystem, including LandSpace and Thousand Sails, is closing the institutional gap even while remaining far behind SpaceX in reusable launch tempo.
• The decisive space race advantage may belong to whoever controls the mine-to-magnet supply chain, not just who builds the best rocket.

America still leads the space race on the launchpad. SpaceX is the reason: it flies at a cadence no rival can match, operates the world’s largest satellite network, and has turned orbital access into an industrial service. But the deeper race is shifting beneath the rocket fairing. China is building a state-enabled commercial space stack—reusable launchers, sovereign satellite constellations, commercial spaceports, lunar missions—and doing it with commanding control over rare earths, gallium, germanium, graphite, and magnet supply chains.

SpaceX: Tomorrow’s Empire, Priced Today

SpaceX remains formidable. It also may be priced for perfection. SpaceX targeted a valuation around $1.75 trillion in IPO planning, with $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, a $4.94 billion loss, and $20.74 billion in capital spending. Multiple financial press outlets reported the company had $50.8 billion in liabilities at year-end 2025, while later market coverage cited liabilities closer to $60 billion by early 2026. At the reported IPO range, investors were looking at roughly 80x–94x trailing sales—a valuation built less on today’s cash generation than on Starlink dominance, Starship optionality, and the xAI narrative.

That does not make SpaceX weak. It means the market is paying now for futures not yet delivered. Capex exceeded revenue. AI absorbed more than half of total capital spending. This is empire-building, not a mature cash machine.

America Leads in Cadence. China Is Building the System

On current launch performance, the United States remains far ahead. SpaceX had reached its 76th Falcon 9 mission of 2026 by late June, with most supporting Starlink. Starlink now operates at a scale no Chinese constellation yet approaches. China is not close on cadence—but it is closing the institutional gap. LandSpace is China’s most visible private SpaceX analogue. It pioneered methane-fueled orbital launch and is developing Zhuque-3 for reusable operations. LandSpace itself expects around 10 launches next year, compared with SpaceX’s roughly 150-plus annual tempo.

The “400 Companies” Claim

The claim online that China has 400 private space companies is plausible as ecosystem shorthand, but difficult to verify precisely from open sources. The better point is trajectory: China is widening its private and quasi-private space base, including LandSpace, Geespace, Thousand Sails/SpaceSail, Guowang, reusable spacecraft testing, and the Wenchang commercial spaceport.

China is not chasing SpaceX company by company. It is building a state-enabled industrial stack.

The Mineral and Element Undercarriage

Most space-race coverage misses the physical base. Rockets, satellites, phased arrays, power systems, AI infrastructure, and guidance systems require semiconductors, solar materials, specialty alloys, batteries, and yes, permanent rare earth magnets. China holds dominant positions across critical minerals and about 90% of rare-earth permanent magnets, while Beijing has already used export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, and rare earth-related technologies. That gives China three advantages: lower domestic input costs, priority access during shortages, and the ability to slow rivals through licensing pressure.

REEx Investor Verdict

SpaceX remains the benchmark. But its valuation assumes America keeps its lead while solving its mineral and element dependency in time. China is behind in reusable launch cadence and commercial execution. It is not behind in industrial preparation. The real space race is no longer just about who has the best rocket. It is about who controls the materials that build the rocket, guide the satellite, power the payload, and refill the factory. SpaceX may still become one of history’s great industrial companies. But at an extreme sales multiple, investors are buying mythology unless Washington secures the mine-to-magnet undercarriage that Beijing already treats as strategic terrain.

Register today: REEx Marketplace™ (opens in a new tab)