U.S.-China Reach Framework Deal, But Real Questions About Rare Earths Remain

Highlights

• US and China reach preliminary agreement to ease export restrictions on rare earth minerals after intense negotiations in London.
• Framework aims to reactivate trade truce and address semiconductor and critical mineral trade barriers.
• Deal highlights ongoing US vulnerability to China’s control of critical mineral supply chains.

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Following two days of high-level negotiations in London, U.S. and Chinese officials announced a framework agreement to ease export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets—a key step in reactivating the Geneva tariff truce and stabilizing global supply chains.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the framework is intended to “put meat on the bones” of the earlier May agreement between the two superpowers.  The news was picked up by the media around the globe, such as the Sydney Morning Herald (opens in a new tab).

The deal—still pending final approval by Presidents Trump and Xi—would resolve China’s de facto embargo on rare earth shipments to U.S. manufacturers, particularly those in the automotive, defense, and renewable energy sectors. In return, the U.S. is expected to lift some of its own retaliatory export restrictions on semiconductor tools and chemicals.

But what is this deal—and what is it not?

This is not a binding trade treaty. It is a political handshake, establishing shared intent to roll back harmful restrictions. Implementation depends on two leaders known for abrupt policy shifts. The deal also lacks enforcement mechanisms, timelines, or transparency into the volume, pricing, or duration of resumed rare earth exports.

Critically, the framework does not address deeper structural issues: China’s overwhelming control of global rare earth refining, the weaponization of critical mineral flows, or the lack of alternative U.S. and allied processing capacity. The current agreement resets a shaky détente but leaves Washington’s fundamental vulnerabilities intact.

For now, the rare earth valve appears to be reopening. But this reprieve should not be mistaken for long-term security. If anything, the episode reinforces a stark truth: the United States remains dangerously dependent on a single adversarial supplier for materials essential to its economy and national defense.

A reminder for the critically minded, frameworks come and go. Supply chain resilience must be built.