Highlights

• Benzinga report sparks massive retail trading surge in critical metals stocks like Trilogy Metals, USA Rare Earth, and TMC.
• Market momentum driven by speculation and rumored federal backing, with no official documentation or confirmed investments.
• Experts warn of potential market bubble similar to 2021 EV speculation, emphasizing the risks of trading on unconfirmed headlines.

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Benzinga’s Erica Kollmann didn’t just report a story — she dropped a spark in a powder keg. The Trump administration’s rumored direct investments in critical metals have ignited a retail gold rush in everything from lithium to lanthanum. Trilogy Metals (TMQ) rocketed 212%, USA Rare Earth (USAR) leapt 11.8%, and deep-sea miner TMC surged 15.7%, each riding a wave of presidential proximity.

MP Materials (MP) and Lithium Americas (LAC) were also name-dropped as early beneficiaries of Washington’s strategic hand — but here’s the rub: no official documentation, no filings, no contracts. Just whispers, speculation, and momentum trading on the scent of federal backing. As TD Cowen’s David Deckelbaum told Bloomberg, “This is more speculation than anything else.” He’s right.

Rumor as Market Oxygen

The so-called “Trump trade” is more about psychology than policy. Benzinga’s piece implies that USA Rare Earth’s “close communication” with the administration hints at a forthcoming investment. That leap is enormous — and unsupported. While USAR’s Sierra Blanca, Texas, rare earth mine and Stillwater, Oklahoma, magnet factory are indeed strategically significant, no federal equity position has been announced. Likewise, Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) briefly soared on talk of a Greenland play before the White House denied any active deal.

This is a familiar fever — reminiscent of the 2021 EV bubble, when retail traders confused hype with inevitability. Every rumor became a revolution. Every policy hint is a payday. The risk? When the music stops, liquidity dries up fast.

The Tape Doesn’t Lie

• USAR: Hovering near $29, RSI screaming overbought (>75). Momentum strong, but gravity inevitable.
• MP Materials (MP): Fundamentally robust, but trading at a frothy ~40x forward earnings.
• TMC Metals (TMC): Up 600% year-to-date—pre-revenue, pre-permit, and pre-proof. Caveat investor.

Yes, America must rebuild its rare earth and magnet supply chain. But serious policy moves come through the DoD, DOE, and Congressional appropriations, not media soundbites. The real transformation will appear in federal filings — not ticker chatter.

The Questions Benzinga Didn’t Ask

• Mechanism: Are these “stakes” direct equity, loan guarantees, or something else?
• Timing: When will any actual funds move?
• Oversight: Who’s minding the taxpayers’ balance sheet?

Until those blanks are filled, this rally is less revolution than reflex — the market mistaking a headline for a handshake.

Source: Erica Kollmann, “Trump Ignites Metal Stock Frenzy—These Names Could Be Next,” Benzinga, October 7, 2025.

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