Highlights
- Trump’s 35% reduction in Chinese exports and strategic tariffs challenge China’s economic dominance.
- China’s diversified global trade partners reduce U.S. economic pressure effectiveness.
- Emerging U.S. rare earth processing capabilities and semiconductor export leverage signal potential strategic rebalancing.
In a recent critique published by 24/7 Wall St (opens in a new tab)., financial commentator Rich Duprey rebuts CNBC host Jim Cramer’s assertion that the U.S. is at a disadvantage in trade talks with China over rare earth elements. Cramer warned in June that America “doesn’t have the cards” in its geopolitical standoff with China, citing Beijing’s dominant grip on rare earths as a strategic weapon.
But recent developments suggest otherwise.
According to Duprey,President Trump’s aggressive 55% tariffs on Chinesegoods—implemented earlier this year—have already forced a shift. China’s exports to the U.S. plummeted 35% year-over-year by May, delivering a direct blow to its export-driven economy. By June 27, Beijing agreed to expedite rare earth export licenses to the U.S. in exchange for eased semiconductor restrictions—an early win for Washington’s trade posture.
Another vantage, however, needs to be considered. While the recent U.S.-China trade deal suggests America wielded effective leverage through tariffs, that influence may be more limited than it appears. As Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx( has chronicled, twenty years ago, China depended heavily on the U.S. as its primary export market—but today, less than 15% of Chinese exports go to America. China has spent two decades diversifying its trade partners across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, making it more resilient to U.S. pressure. This shift raises a critical question for investors and policymakers: if the U.S. assumes itcan force long-term concessions through economic pressure alone, it maybe overestimating its strategic hand in an increasingly multipolar trade environment
The article also underscores a strategic nuance Cramer overlooked: while China dominates rare earth processing, it is highly dependent on U.S. consumer and tech markets. Moreover, the U.S. possesses counter-leverage in the form of advanced chip exports, critical to China’s tech sector. Duprey also notes that MP Materials (NYSE: MP) halted REE concentrate exports to China in April and is scaling domestic refining—marking progress, however incremental, toward greater independence.
Still, the article raises key investor questions:
- Is China’s rare earth “concession” sustainable or merely tactical? Expedited export approvals do not mean the long-term threat has passed. As Rare Earth Exchanges has reported this is no permanentdeal, at least not yet.
- Can U.S. refining scale fast enough to avoid repeating dependency cycles? MP’s progress is notable, but not yet enough.
- Will the U.S. build a true rare earth strategic reserve or industrial base? Duprey points out this remains a gap in national planning. Yet REEx would concur.
Retail investors should take this episode as a signal: geopolitical leverage in rare earths is shifting—but remains fragile. Markets should watch for sustained U.S. investment in processing, stronger industrial policy, and China’s next move.
Rare Earth Exchanges Reliability Barometer™
| Category | Score | Notes |
| Factual Accuracy | 8 | Trade and export data backed by government figures |
| Speculative Content | 5 | Assumes Chinese concessions signal long-term change |
| Bias Detection | 6 | Leans pro-Trump without deeply probing U.S. structural gaps |
| Investor Relevance | 9 | Highlights key macro risks and supply chain dynamics |
| Overall Clarity | 8 | Clear and readable, but leaves policy execution questions open |
Source: 24/7 Wall St., Rich Duprey, July 2, 2025
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