Highlights

• China's rare earth price index retreated from early 2026 peaks above 300 to 255.7, with magnet-critical elements like dysprosium and terbium declining domestically while surging in ex-China markets.
• A clear pricing decoupling is emerging: heavy rare earths trade at scarcity-driven premiums outside China while remaining managed and lower inside the country's state-influenced system.
• Western price floors and offtake guarantees are beginning to emerge but remain early-stage, as China continues to dominate separated oxides, metals, and magnet production globally.

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This Rare Earth Exchanges™ brief analyzes China’s March 30, 2026, rare earth price index and pricing table with USD conversions. The key signal: prices surged into early 2026 but are now stabilizing or softening—especially for magnet-critical elements. However, these prices reflect a state-influenced domestic market, not a fully open global benchmark. Meanwhile, early Western industrial policy is attempting to establish price floors, and ex-China markets—especially for heavy rare earths—are beginning to decouple.

A Market That Climbed—Then Paused

China’s official rare earth price index stands at 255.7 (2010 = 100). After a steady 2024–2025 range, prices surged into early 2026 (peaking above 300) before pulling back.  So what does this mean in a nutshell: the rally happened—but momentum is fading.

This index is derived from domestic Chinese transaction data, meaning it reflects internal conditions—not transparent global pricing.

Magnet Metals: The Strategic Core Softens (USD View)

Using an approximate exchange rate of ~7.2 RMB/USD, key prices translate as:

• Neodymium oxide (Nd): 702–722 RMB/kg → ~$97–$100/kg (flat)
• Pr-Nd alloy: 870–890 RMB/kg → ~$121–$124/kg (flat)
• Dysprosium oxide (Dy): 1360–1400 RMB/kg → ~$189–$194/kg (declining)
• Terbium oxide (Tb): 6050–6110 RMB/kg → ~$840–$848/kg (declining) *

*in China

These are the core inputs for high-performance magnets.

Translation: the most strategic materials are no longer rising—and some are weakening in China. But this is a very different reality, at least for heavy rare earth elements outside of China.

A Market Splitting in Two

A clear divergence is emerging:

• Light REEs (La, Ce) → stable, oversupplied
• NdPr (magnet base) → stable but capped
• Heavy REEs (Dy, Tb) → declining inside China, surging outside of China

Drivers likely include inventory digestion, uneven EV demand, and controlled supply releases.

Decoupling: One Commodity, Two Markets

Here is the critical development: price decoupling is underway, especially for heavy rare earths.

• Inside China → softer, managed pricing
• Outside China → scarcity-driven, higher, more volatile pricing

Ex-China buyers face:

• Limited processing capacity
• Geopolitical constraints
• Security-of-supply premiums

Result: Chinese prices increasingly understate real global replacement costs, particularly for Dy and Tb.

Pricing Power: Not a Free Market

This pricing system is not the result of a fully open market:

• Based on reported domestic transactions
• Influenced by quotas, state-owned enterprises, and policy controls
• Lacks full transparency and global arbitrage

China still controls the vast majority of separated oxides, metals, and magnets, anchoring real supply.

The West Builds a Floor—But It’s Early

The U.S., Australia, and Japan are beginning to implement price floors, offtake guarantees, and subsidies—especially for NdPr—to support domestic projects. But this remains early-stage.

These mechanisms may de-risk projects, but they do not yet set global prices. China still dominates deliverable supply, meaning the vast majority of the market centers there.

What Investors Should Watch

• NdPr stability vs. lack of upside
• Divergence between China and ex-China heavy REE pricing
• Early Western pricing interventions
• China’s continued dominance in midstream and magnet production

This is not a bull or bear market—it is a fragmenting system with geopolitical pricing layers.

Source Note: This data originates from the China Rare Earth Industry Association, a state-linked body. Prices are compiled from domestic enterprise inputs and reflect a partially managed market environment rather than a fully transparent global marketplace. All figures should be independently verified before use in investment or commercial decisions.