Highlights

• US could fall 730 gigawatts short of 2050 clean energy targets due to mineral supply constraints.
• Nickel, silicon, and rare earth element scarcity pose significant risks to solar, wind, and battery technology development.
• Researchers recommend:
  • Expanding domestic production.
  • Diversifying imports.
  • Investing in strategic material stockpiles to mitigate risks.

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A new open-access study published September 30, 2025, in npj Clean Energy (Nature Portfolio) by Dr. Boyu Yao and Professor Yury Dvorkin of Johns Hopkins University presents one of the most comprehensive analyses yet of how mineral bottlenecks could derail America’s clean energy transition. The authors—joined by Hannah Jeong, Mahdi Mehrtash, Bentley Allan, and Daniel Ockerman—developed a multi-year optimization model integrating trade data, historical production, and geopolitical factors to quantify supply risks across 26 critical materials needed for wind, solar, and battery technologies.

Study Findings: A 730-Gigawatt Gap

According to the model, the U.S. could fall 730 gigawatts short of its 2050 clean energy goals—roughly one-third (34%) of planned capacity—if supply chain constraints persist. The shortfall stems primarily from the limited availability of nickel, silicon, and rare earth elements (REEs), which are essential for solar panels, wind turbines, and advanced batteries.

The researchers found that even under optimized allocation, nickel shortages cripple both solar PV and wind buildouts, while REE scarcity constrains the production of direct-drive wind turbines. Solar PV systems—especially those using crystalline silicon (c-Si) and cadmium telluride (CdTe)—face mounting bottlenecks due to domestic silicon production lagging and trade routes remaining concentrated in politically unstable regions.

Implications: Beyond Permits—Physical Limits

The findings challenge a prevailing policy narrative that permitting reform alone will unlock clean energy expansion. Instead, the study positions material scarcity as an immediate physical constraint. Even with the Inflation Reduction Act’s incentives, the U.S. cannot achieve its decarbonization targets without broadening access to key minerals.

The authors propose several interventions:

• Expand domestic production and recycling to reduce dependency on imports;
• Diversify import sources beyond China and Indonesia;
• Substitute scarce materials where possible, such as deploying nickel-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries;
• Invest in stockpiles and friendshoring strategies for REEs and other high-risk elements.

Without such measures, even the most aggressive infrastructure buildout scenarios fail to meet Department of Energy (DOE) capacity goals for 2050.

Limitations: Static Trade Data and Technological Uncertainty

The researchers acknowledge that their model simplifies some dynamics. It does not fully capture price responses, industrial innovation, or emerging technologies such as perovskite photovoltaics or solid-state batteries, which could shift material demands. Likewise, trade data aggregates some mineral categories—masking nuances in byproduct metals like indium or tellurium.

Still, the model’s rigor lies in its realism: by grounding projections in actual trade and production data, it exposes the hard limits of physical supply under current policy conditions.

Conclusion: Redefining Energy Security

The Johns Hopkins study reframes energy security not merely as an infrastructure challenge but as a materials challenge. It warns that unless the U.S. accelerates mining, recycling, and strategic alliances, clean energy targets will remain aspirational. “Permits can be streamlined, but atoms can’t be printed,” said one analyst familiar with the findings—a sober reminder that the next phase of decarbonization runs through the periodic table.

Citation: Yao, B., Jeong, H., Mehrtash, M., Allan, B., Ockerman, D., & Dvorkin, Y. (2025). Understanding Supply Chain Constraints for the US Clean Energy Transition. npj Clean Energy, 1(9). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44406-025-00009-1 (opens in a new tab)

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