Highlights

• Neodymium oxide prices hit $70,337.95 per metric ton, reflecting a 12.2% year-over-year increase driven by China's export restrictions.
• China controls over 85% of global rare earth separation capacity, creating significant supply chain challenges for U.S. manufacturers.
• Long-term domestic production investments are years away, leaving industries vulnerable to price volatility and import dependencies.

The price of neodymium oxide in the United States surged to $70,337.95 per metric ton in September 2024—a 12.2% year-over-year increase—marking a clear warning signal for manufacturers across the EV, defense, and clean energy sectors. The sharp rise is driven by Beijing’s tightening grip on rare earth exports, including heavy-handed restrictions on magnet-grade materials, coupled with retaliatory U.S. tariffs that have effectively choked the two-way trade of critical minerals.

With China controlling more than 85% of global rare earth separation capacity, Washington’s strategic decoupling efforts have triggered unintended near-term cost inflation—further exposing America’s vulnerable overreliance on imports.

While policymakers tout long-term investments in domestic production, such as MP Materials and Lynas-Blue Line’s Texas project, these efforts are years from full-scale output. In the meantime, supply chain volatility and escalating costs threaten to ripple across sectors dependent on neodymium-based magnets, from offshore wind turbines to electric drivetrains. Rare Earth Exchanges has warned that until U.S. refining capacity comes online, price spikes like this one are not a glitch—they are the new baseline.