Highlights

• Trump proposes a $500 billion 'payback' deal giving the U.S. sweeping control over Ukraine's critical minerals, oil, gas, ports, and infrastructure.
• The proposed agreement would seize 50% of Ukraine's resource revenues and grant the U.S. first rights to mineral licenses.
• Zelensky faces an impossible choice between potential military subjugation by Putin or economic subjugation by Trump's aggressive economic terms.

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President Donald Trump has delivered a stunning ultimatum to Ukraine: a $500 billion “payback” in exchange for continued U.S. support—an economic colonization plan that Kyiv can’t possibly afford. This account comes by way of the UK’s The Telegraph (opens in a new tab).  

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,  the deal, marked "Privileged & Confidential" and dated Feb 7, 2025, hands the U.S. sweeping control over Ukraine’s critical minerals, oil, gas, ports, and infrastructure—all under New York law, with Washington claiming sovereign immunity.

A Trump Take-It-or-Leave-It PowerPlay?

According to the terms obtained by the UK-based media:

• The U.S. would seize 50% of Ukraine’s resource revenues and control future mineral licenses, ensuring America profits first.
• Ukraine must grant the U.S. a "right of first refusal" on all exportable minerals, effectively locking out other partners.
• Trump warns that rejecting the deal could mean Ukraine falls to Russia, leaving Kyiv trapped between two exploitative forces.

A Worse Deal Than Versailles?

• Trump’s demand dwarfs Germany’s post-WWI reparations under the Treaty of Versailles (opens in a new tab). Even after WWII, Germany and Japan received aid, not this level of financial servitude.
• While Zelensky initially offered a U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earths to ensure future defense support, he likely didn’t anticipate such punitive terms.

Is Ukraine’s Resource Wealth a Mirage?

Despite Trump’s claim that Ukraine is a "gold mine", Rare Earth Exchanges and global markets tell a different story

• Lithium prices have plummeted 88% since 2022, and major U.S. lithium reserves make Ukraine’s less critical.
• Rare earth elements aren’t rare—China’s dominance is being challenged by new U.S. and global mining efforts. But The Guardian story underestimates the challenges associated with overcoming China, much like nearly all the media.
• Shale gas extraction is problematic, with much of Ukraine’s deposits under Russian control or in geologically complex zones.

Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ or Economic Warfare?

Trump once said, "Aim high, and keep pushing until you get what you want." This isn't business; however, according to the Anglo media, it’s economic coercion, forcing Ukraine into a neo-imperial grip just as it fights for survival against Russia.

Does Zelensky now face an impossible choice? Is it military subjugation by Putin or economic subjugation by Trump?  The latter, of course, appears to be scouring the globe for critical minerals and rare earth elements! However, as Rare Earth Exchanges has conveyed many times, just accessing the deposits is but one step in a long, arduous journey for America.   

See below for Trumpian Terms:

TERMS AND CONDITIONS AGREEMENT

DRAFT AS OF FEBRUARY 7, 2025

• WHEREAS the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022;
• WHEREAS the American people desire to invest alongside Ukraine in a free and secure Ukraine;
• WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine desire a lasting piece in Ukraine and a durable partnership between their two peoples and governments;
• WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine following a durable peace;
• NOW, THEREFORE, the United States of America and Ukraine intend to enter into an agreement on the establishment of a Reconstruction Investment Fund herein to deepen the partnership between the United States of America and Ukraine.
• Parties: United States of America (USG) and Ukraine (GOU)