Highlights

• Energy Fuels reports an annual production of over 2 million pounds of U₃O₈.
• The company has $298.5 million in working capital and $700 million in convertible notes.
• Energy Fuels trades at 38 times sales based on approximately $79 million in revenue.
• The company is experiencing deep operating losses.
• Rare earth progress includes the production of 37,000 kg of NdPr and qualification by POSCO.
• Commercial heavy REE output and Phase 2 scale-up (6,000 tpa NdPr) are targeted for 2026-2028.
• The 40,900 tpa monazite pipeline from Donald, Toliara, Bahia, and Chemours represents potential feedstock.
• Execution, geopolitics, and financing remain key variables for securing throughput.

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Last month’s Crux Investor (opens in a new tab) feature positions Energy Fuels Inc. (opens in a new tab) (NYSE: UUUU) as the backbone of a U.S. uranium and rare earth resurgence, anchored by the White Mesa Mill and a growing monazite feedstock pipeline. The thesis advanced by Ryan Charles is ambitious and increasingly data-rich. For investors, however, the distinction between installed capability and future execution remains decisive.

This company matters for the national nuclear and rare earth element supply chain resilience, given its position and prospects to emerge as a substantive refiner.

What the November 2025 Data Confirms

Energy Fuels’ November 2025 corporate presentation (opens in a new tab) adds quantitative clarity. On uranium, the company reports a current production run-rate of ~2+ million lbs U₃O₈ per year, with White Mesa licensed for 8+ million lbs annually and longer-term ambitions to scale to 4–6 million lbs per year, contingent on permitting at Sheep Mountain, Roca Honda, and Bullfrog. Cost guidance of $23–$30/lb is reaffirmed, supported by higher-grade ore from Pinyon Plain and La Sal. Near-term revenue visibility improves via four long-term utility contracts covering 300,000 lbs in 2025 and 620,000–880,000 lbs in 2026.

Liquidity is materially stronger. As of September 30, 2025, Energy Fuels reported $298.5 million in working capital (distinct from cash), later supplemented by a $700 million convertible note offering (0.75% coupon, 32.5% conversion premium), materially de-risking capital availability for uranium and rare-earth expansion.

On rare earths, progress is real but staged. Energy Fuels has produced ~37,000 kg of finished separated NdPr oxide and ~9,000 kg of mixed REE carbonate, with NdPr qualification confirmed by POSCO, including commercial-scale magnet production. Heavy REEs remain pre-commercial: piloting has yielded ~29 kg of 99.9% Dy oxide through September 2025, with ~1 kg of Tb oxide targeted by December. Commercial heavy-REE production is planned, not achieved, with management targeting Q4 2026, subject to continued piloting success.

Critically, the oft-cited scale—up to 6,000 tpa NdPr, ~275 tpa Dy, ~80 tpa Tb—belongs to Phase 2, which is not yet permitted and targets commissioning in 2028, not 2026.  Timing is key here from an investor and supply chain planning perspective.

Where Optimism Still Runs Ahead

The ~40,900 tpa monazite pipeline (Donald, Toliara, Bahia, Chemours) represents contained potential, not secured throughput. Donald’s FID is earliest Q1 2026; Toliara hinges on government stability agreements in Madagascar; Bahia remains exploration-stage with a resource estimate pending. Execution, geopolitics, and financing remain real variables.

Company Profile: Fundamentals vs. Momentum

Yahoo Finance data show a company that has captured investor enthusiasm but not yet converted it into operating profitability. With a market cap of ~$3.3 billion on TTM revenue of ~$78.7 million, the stock trades at an extreme ~38× sales and ~4.7× book, pricing in a step-change in uranium margins and rare-earth scale-up rather than current performance. Despite ~338% YoY revenue growth, margins remain deeply negative (operating margin ~–150%, net margin ~–124%), with a TTM net loss of ~$98 million and EBITDA of ~$–93 million. Cash burn persists (operating cash flow ~–$109 million, levered free cash flow ~–$108 million).

The balance sheet is unusually strong for a pre-inflection miner: $235 million in cash, no reported debt at quarter-end, and a current ratio of 11.5—providing time and flexibility. Technically, the stock has already priced in a large share of future success: ~153% up over 12 months, well above the 200-day moving average ($10), with high volatility (beta 1.9). Institutional ownership is high (69%), but skepticism is evident with ~17% of the float sold short, a relatively high number.

Bottom Line for Investors

Energy Fuels owns real, scarce infrastructure in a strategically favored sector, distinguishing it from junior hopefuls. On Rare Earth Exchanges processor rankings, they rank high in the USA due to their potential and the fact that they are actually refining product. At the same time, the November data validate skepticism around timelines, scale-up risk, and geopolitical dependencies. The assets are real. The rare-earth upside is a 2026–2028 execution story, not a present-day cash engine—and at current valuations, the market is paying today for results that have yet to appear.

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