Upstream Rare Earth Prices Hold Firm as Downstream Demand Stalls

Highlights

• Upstream rare earth suppliers are holding firm on prices, with Myanmar supply disruptions tightening availability.
• Oxide and metal prices remain elevated, but downstream buyers are cautious due to seasonal slowdowns.
• The market is experiencing a strategic pricing standoff between producers expecting stronger demand and hesitant downstream buyers.

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Retail investors eyeing near-term rare earth market signals should take note: upstream rare earth suppliers are holding firm on price quotes, while downstream demand and transaction volumes remain sluggish, according to the July 1 morning summary (opens in a new tab) from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).

In the upstream ore segment, Myanmar supply disruptions due to weather are tightening availability. Rare earth carbonate is priced at ¥36,000/mt, monazite at ¥42,600/mt, and high-value medium-yttrium europium-rich ore at ¥190,000/mt. Most suppliers are refusing to sell at lower prices, betting on stronger demand ahead.

Oxide prices remain elevated:

• Praseodymium-neodymium oxide (Pr-Nd): ¥444,000–446,000/mt
• Dysprosium oxide: ¥1.605M–1.615M/mt
• Terbium oxide: ¥7.05M–7.1M/mt

This firm stance is underpinned by bullish sentiment in upstream markets—though actual trade activity remains muted, with downstream buyers cautious.

In the rare earth metals segment:

• Pr-Nd alloy dipped slightly to ¥543,000–548,000/mt,
• Terbium metal slipped to ¥8.7M–8.83M/mt as some suppliers lowered quotes to stimulate sales.

  Still, most suppliers show cost-based resistance to further price reductions.

NdFeB magnet blanks (the key intermediary product for permanent magnets) remained price-stable across grades, but motor manufacturers are entering off-season, reducing new orders. This imbalance—high raw material costs vs. weak end-use demand—may compress margins and slow downstream purchasing.

SMM also reports that recycled material pricing held steady, reflecting market uncertainty and wait-and-see behavior from both buyers and sellers.

Key Investor Takeaway

The rare earth market is currently defined by a pricing standoff: upstream producers expect stronger demand and are holding prices, while downstream buyers, facing seasonal slowdowns and squeezed margins, remain hesitant.

Critical question for investors: Can bullish upstream expectations withstand a prolonged soft patch in downstream sectors like EVs and wind power?

For ongoing supply chain analysis and retail investor tools, visit www.rareearthxchanges.com (opens in a new tab).