Highlights

• US and Ukraine negotiate preliminary agreement granting US access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals.
• Deal establishes joint ownership of resource fund with Ukraine committing 50% of future state-owned resource proceeds.
• Agreement lacks security guarantees, leaving Ukraine's strategic position uncertain despite economic potential.

The U.S. and Ukraine have reached a preliminary agreement granting U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as part of a broader economic and strategic partnership, according to three senior Ukrainian officials. While the deal could be finalized as early as Friday, key technical details remain unsettled, and security guarantees are not included.

Key Points from the Agreement

The deal establishes joint ownership of a resource fund, with Ukraine committing 50% of future proceeds from state-owned resources (including minerals, oil, and gas).

The original Trump administration proposal—demanding $500 billion worth of Ukraine’s rare earth profits as repayment for U.S. wartime assistance—was removed from the final draft. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to travel to Washington for an official signing with President Donald Trump. And Trump touted the deal’s potential worth at “a trillion dollars”, vaguely referring to rare earths and "other things,” reports Susie Blann, Hanna Arhirova, and Vasilisa Stepanenko with the Associated Press (AP).

Geopolitical Tensions & Security Omissions

The agreement does not include security guarantees, a major sticking point for Ukraine. Zelenskyy initially resisted the deal after meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice President JD Vance, objecting to the lack of military assurances. This led to heated rhetoric between Trump and Zelenskyy, with Trump calling the Ukrainian leader “a dictator without elections” and dismissing his popularity. However, after negotiations led by Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, both sides made significant progress.

Rare Earth Exchanges Review

While the article outlines the financial and diplomatic aspects, the AP piece lacks significant critical analysis.  First, for U.S. Strategic Interests, what specific rare earth resources will the U.S. gain access to, and how will this affect America’s supply chain independence from China?  Second, does this deal jeopardize Ukraine’s long-term control over its own resources?  We can’t be certain. Third, without military assurances, is Ukraine being pushed into an economic arrangement that does not enhance its defense capabilities?  Finally, how does this deal align with Trump’s broader critical minerals policy, particularly in light of China’s dominance in rare earth processing?

 While Ukraine views this deal as a step toward securing economic stability, the absence of security guarantees raises questions about its long-term strategic value. The agreement cements U.S. interests in Ukraine’s resource sector but leaves Kyiv vulnerable without a military commitment—a critical factor as the country remains embroiled in its war with Russia.  And the U.S. continues to face near total dependence on China for at least the short to intermediate run, possibly even the long run.