Highlights

• The USGS study identifies 14 out of 50 critical minerals as high or moderate risk, with China posing the greatest threat to U.S. mineral supply security.
• Rare earths, gallium, graphite, and other key minerals are flagged as highly vulnerable to potential disruption, with recent export restrictions validating the study's predictions.
• The research suggests that future mineral export shocks are inevitable, urging U.S. policymakers to prioritize stockpiling, friendshoring, and domestic processing investments.

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In a timely and sobering assessment, the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Minerals Information Center has released a preprint study analyzing the United States’ exposure to supply chain disruptions for 50 federally designated critical minerals. The study, led by Ji Won Moon and colleagues, introduces a new “Score of Potential Risk” (Spr) model—quantifying not just resource dependence, but geopolitical vulnerability to foreign state intervention.

Key Findings

The analysis confirms what industry and defense strategists have long feared: China is the single greatest threat to U.S. mineral supply security. Among the 50 minerals examined, 14 were flagged as high or moderate risk (Spr ≥ 32%), with China dominating each category. Rare earths, gallium, graphite, germanium, tungsten, bismuth, magnesium, and antimony all received Tier 1 designations (Spr ≥ 50%), meaning they are highly vulnerable to disruption. Notably, recent Chinese export restrictions on gallium, germanium, graphite, bismuth, magnesium, and antimony closely mirrored USGS predictions, validating the methodology.

The Spr index combines market share across extraction, processing, and U.S. import volumes with Freedom House governance scores—offering a powerful lens to assess both capacity and willingness to disrupt.

Limitations

The study uses 2021 data and does not account for 2024–2025 export controls, missing dynamic shifts in mineral markets. Individual rare earth elements and platinum group metals were grouped rather than disaggregated, limiting granularity. The model also does not directly assess domestic stockpiles, recycling, or substitution potential—important buffers against disruption.

Implications

This model is not just academic—it’s predictive. USGS correctly flagged multiple minerals that China has since restricted. The study provides a shortlist of Tier 1 and Tier 2 candidates—tellurium, indium, tantalum, zirconium—likely to be targeted next. U.S. policymakers, defense planners, and manufacturers should use this framework to prioritize stockpiling, friendshoring, and domestic processing investments.

As geopolitical fragmentation deepens, the message is clear: The next critical mineral export shock is not a matter of “if”—but “when.”

Source: Ji Won Moon et al., Assessment of Critical Minerals Supply Chain for the United States in Perspective of Trade Restriction by Foreign Countries, USGS, 2025.

https://ssrn.com/abstract=5281348 (opens in a new tab)