Highlights

• Analysis of 115 policy episodes (2008-2023) shows export controls and resource nationalism in critical minerals have driven price deviations above 30% and increased market risk by approximately 140% since 2020.
• China's dominance in rare earth element (REE) refining creates a bottleneck: when Beijing tightens export rules, ex-China prices spike and volatility cascades through global supply chains, hitting low- and middle-income countries hardest.
• Authors recommend the following to reduce costs and inequality in the net-zero transition:
  • Transparent export regimes
  • Interoperable standards
  • Scaled recycling
  • Shared stockpiles with Global South value-addition

Governments are reshaping the mineral map—and raising the bill. Lead author Yongguang Zhu (China University of Geosciences) and a global team including Shiquan Dou, Saleem H. Ali (University of Delaware/UNU/UQ), Wei-Qiang Chen (CAS), Gang Liu (Peking University), Qian Zhang (Queen’s), Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah (Luleå), Jinhua Cheng, and Deyi Xu analyze 115 policy episodes (2008–2023) across 16 critical metals and find that export controls, resource nationalism, and subsidies have pushed price deviations above 30% and market risk up ~140% since 2020.

In plain English: more policy intervention has meant more price shocks—especially in rare earth elements (REEs)—and low- and middle-income countries are paying the steepest price as the world races toward net-zero.

How they proved it is simple to grasp.

The team first used a “what-if” tool (synthetic control) to estimate where prices would have landed without each policy move. Then they ran those shocks through a global supply-chain model (EXIOBASE) to see how costs ripple into everyday technologies—EV motors, wind turbines, electronics—and which countries end up footing the bill. The standout story is the “China bottleneck” in REE refining: when Beijing tightens rules (licenses, quotas, standards), ex-China prices jump and volatility races through magnet supply chains. Policy actions also stack—export rules plus subsidies plus stockpiles—creating non-linear spikes in uncertainty. Wealthy nations cushion impacts with tools and stockpiles; resource exporters in the Global South absorb the whiplash and capture less value.

The authors urge practical fixes over politics

Transparent export regimes, interoperable standards, open data, scaled recycling, and shared stockpiles that include value-addition in the Global South. Caveats: overlapping events can blur causality, input–output models are coarse, and this is a preprint (not yet peer-reviewed). Still, the signal is clear: protectionism in critical minerals—particularly where China dominates processing—raises costs and widens inequality.

A fairer, calmer REE market is possible, but it takes coordination, data, and discipline, not just bigger policy hammers.

Citation: Zhu Y., Dou S., Ali S.H., Chen W-Q., Liu G., Zhang Q., Amuakwa-Mensah F., Cheng J., Xu D. Protectionism in critical minerals supply chains exacerbates inequalities in the global energy transition. Preprint posted Nov 1, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7357362/v1 (opens in a new tab) (CC BY 4.0)

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