Highlights

• Myanmar's Kachin state represents a potentially strategic rare earth resource, but is complicated by ongoing civil conflict and geopolitical tensions.
• China maintains near-total control of rare earth processing, making alternative supply chain efforts extremely challenging.
• Attempts to develop rare earth resources risk perpetuating environmental destruction and local community health impacts.

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India and the United States are circling Myanmar’s rare earth deposits as potential lifelines for diversifying supply chains away from China. The idea sounds bold: tap the rich mineral fields of Kachin state, wedged against China’s border, and build a new corridor of strategic resources. But the reality is far more fraught.

The Solid Ground: Known Riches and Real Policy

Myanmar’s Kachin state is undeniably a global hub for rare earths. Decades of mining—much of it informal or poorly regulated—has supplied raw material that feeds directly into China’s processing dominance. India has reportedly held early discussions with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which controls swathes of the territory, while Washington has fielded proposals to work with either the junta or rebel factions. On paper, the prize is real: abundant resources critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced technologies.

Slippery Terrain: Conflict, Logistics, and Politics

The obstacles, however, are staggering. Kachin’s steep mountains and fractured control by armed groups make transport arduous even in peacetime. In today’s civil war environment, reliable exports south are implausible without ceasefires that remain elusive. Geography and instability together make large-scale production and shipment “difficult and torturous.” This part of the story is anchored in fact.

The Spin and the Speculative Leap

Where things drift into speculation is in the assumption that either the U.S. or India can “cut China out.” The KIA and Myanmar’s junta both operate under Beijing’s shadow, and China has invested heavily in Myanmar’s mining sector while maintaining near-total control of global processing capacity. Experts caution that any attempt to bypass China is “dead in the water.” Still, Indian influence with both the military and KIA offers a potential opening—though one that could also prolong conflict and worsen environmental destruction.

What’s Not Said Loud Enough

Pollution and community health impacts from years of reckless mining in Myanmar are mentioned but deserve sharper emphasis. Any new push to extract rare earths there risks perpetuating what local residents already call an environmental crisis. That element is less speculative and more overlooked—a reminder that geopolitical maneuvering often overshadows human costs.

Why This Matters for Supply Chains

The significance for the rare earth industry is clear: talk of Myanmar as an alternative supply node underscores just how desperate the U.S. and India are to find leverage against China’s dominance. But the risks are glaring—conflict, logistical nightmares, environmental liabilities, and Beijing’s likely pushback. Investors and policymakers should treat Myanmar not as a near-term supply solution but as a cautionary tale. Building secure, diversified rare earth chains will require more than high-stakes bets in unstable frontiers.

Source: South China Morning Post, “Why plans by India and US to tap Myanmar’s rare earths are fraught with risks,” September 18, 2025

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