Highlights

• Bajaj Auto's production of Chetak scooter and GoGo three-wheeler slashed by 50% due to China's rare earth magnet export restrictions.
• India imports nearly 100% of rare earth magnets, revealing a critical strategic vulnerability in its electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem.
• The 'zero month' crisis highlights broader policy failures in developing domestic critical mineral and magnet production capabilities.

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Rajiv Bajaj’s comments in The Times of India (opens in a new tab) are anything but hyperbole. Faced with a chokehold on rare earth magnet supply from China, Bajaj Auto (opens in a new tab)—the second-largest electric scooter manufacturer in India—is bracing for a possible “zero month” in August. Production for its flagship Chetak scooter and GoGo three-wheeler has already been slashed by 50%.

This isn’t just a supply chain hiccup. It’s a strategic vulnerability, laid bare.

Reality Check: What’s Verified

The core claim—that China has curbed rare earth magnet exports and that Indian manufacturers are facing direct consequences—is verifiable and well-documented. Since April, China has tightened controls on heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, both essential for high-performance neodymium magnets used in EV drivetrains.

Bajaj Auto's rapid production falloff after depleting stockpiled components mirrors broader industry warnings. For India, which imports nearly 100% of its rare earth magnets (mostly from China), the impact was predictable—but no less severe.

Rajiv Bajaj’s statement that "there are no substitutes in the short term" is also accurate. Alternatives to high-performance RE magnets remain largely experimental or cost-prohibitive at scale.

Where the Article Glides Over

What TOI doesn’t dig into is why India, despite years of policy promises, still has no domestic rare earth magnet production. Nor does it press Bajaj Auto on contingency planning. Where are the backup suppliers in Japan, Vietnam, or the U.S.? Has India’s critical mineral diplomacy with Australia or Canada borne fruit? These omissions matter.

The article also misses an opportunity to explore demand-side pain. What happens to India’s EV targets—and consumer confidence—if one of its biggest players stalls in peak season?

Signal vs. Noise

The good news: Bajaj’s public disclosure is a rare moment of candor from an industry often allergic to admitting overreliance on China. It could light a fire under India's stalled ambitions for its magnet supply chain. The bad news? That fire should’ve been lit years ago.

Bottom Line

Rajiv Bajaj’s warning is real, raw, and overdue. But this “zero month” is more than a factory pause—it’s a policy failure, a geopolitical wake-up call, and a magnet for investor scrutiny.