S2 E50: Reflecting on 2025: A Year of Change

Dustin Olsen (00:40)
Hello everyone, happy new year and welcome back to the Rare Earth Exchanges podcast. You're joined by me, Dustin, my co-host Daniel and a guest, Justas who is our head of market services. I know a lot of you have met Justas over the phone and have seen him active on our LinkedIn page. So Justas, welcome to the Rare Earth Exchanges podcast. We're honestly very thrilled to have you here. So how are you guys doing?

Justas Valciukas (01:05)
Thank you,

for having me.

Daniel O'Connor (01:06)
Happy New Year's. 2026 is going to be a big one. 2025 was crazy busy, right?

Dustin Olsen (01:13)
Absolutely. Yeah. So guys, this episode is a special episode for us. This is our 50th podcast episode that we've recorded. It's a milestone for us and we just want to celebrate that here today, as well as I want to talk about all that had happened in the last year. It has been almost an explosive year in terms of

different things have gone on, different events that have occurred. We have seen that just accelerate and just gain incredible amount of momentum over the last 12 months. And so I just want to recap thing, get your guys' opinions on trends, things that really stood out to you in terms of, that was a big turning point or things like that. So Daniel, let's start with you or Dee.

deep, deep into the news of what's going on in this space. So what stood out to you?

Daniel O'Connor (02:10)
Well, you know, again, let's get some context here. You know, we launched this ⁓ website platform late 2024. So, you know, there was an election, things were uncertain, and, you know, we were reporting on just how dire the situation was in terms of the supply chains are, you know, have been completely outsourced for at least the refining and the production of…

products like magnets that you need for various high tech, know, defense systems, green energy, EVs, electronics, you name it. come this election, right, and we knew that ⁓ there would probably be some policy changes, right, with President Trump. you know, we were pretty bold and we made a lot of declarations that there needs to be industrial policy, there needs to be investment.

the state actually has to get involved just because of how the industry is set up in China. It's completely state backed. And so, and they've got a significant monopoly, right? And so what we've seen has been unprecedented, you know, I mean, we're still being critical. It's not enough. And there are a lot of issues that need to be worked out and discussed. But, you know, we have seen from upstream,

Midstream and downstream, know, initially the focus has always been upstream like we need more mines We need to get Greenland. We need you know, we need Canada. We need this We need you know access to dirt to to get to mine the product, right? But as we have learned and as we try to convey You know, the problem is the bottleneck is is more midstream the refining understanding how to separate understanding the chemistry of refining

at scale, right? And so we've seen a lot of activity and to President Trump's credit, you know, there has been an unprecedented amount of activity across the supply chain to the point where companies ⁓ in Africa take Pensana as a company. They've sort of pivoted smartly to make their sphere of center of activity in the United States versus maybe England, right?

So I think a lot of exciting things are happening. I can go into the details a little bit more, but at a high level, we've seen an unprecedented amount of activity, state involvement, which again, we think is a good thing. And based on what the competition is and a cultural change, people are starting to talk about supply chains, the need for this type of talent development, for example, and a more sobering

account I think in the media in the United States is starting to get a little bit more real about what the situation really is. So I'll stop there for a minute.

Dustin Olsen (04:55)
Hey, that's great. And, you sis, what have you seen from LinkedIn? I want to say it aligns really well with what Daniel is just saying.

Justas Valciukas (05:03)
Absolutely. I think just looking back, right, September, October, I looked at one of the posts that we had ⁓ and it, if you don't mind me reading it, it says Pentagon's Rare Earth Ultimatum 2027 ban on Chinese magnets. That was the post that kind of created a momentum for Rare Earth exchanges.

And, you know, looking back in September, I believe we had about 1500 followers on LinkedIn. We had our ex was was kind of dead. have about 45, maybe 50 followers. And after this post, we we just have this momentum. Right. We have the news, the US and Australia deal. We have the US, Japan. So many deals were happening. I think people got so

so excited and we created this this sort of momentum. We had a lot of people engaging on our post. We have people that asking questions, they want to be connected with the right individuals and really it never it never stops since since that post.

Dustin Olsen (06:07)
That's awesome. Dana, what are your thoughts on that post specifically? Because we've been talking about that offline quite a bit of the impact of that band.

Daniel O'Connor (06:15)
Yeah, it's a rule in the Department of Defense or Department of War. been re-labeled and it's, you know, clearly exists to try to incentivize the markets to move away from Chinese supply chains, right? And especially in defense, or it's really about defense and defense related companies. you know, what's becoming clear, you know, what

we're internalizing in this country is that the mission critical supply chain for rare earth elements, not just rare earth elements, but also a lot of critical minerals have been essentially monopolized by China. And, you know, you know, we really can't blame China. Okay. This is one thing that we do in rare earth exchanges. We don't just try to vilify them because they've, it was given to them. Okay. They're just being opportunistic.

Right? Our corporate and political elites had an ideology that was, hey, it's great to outsource this stuff. And we can make more money and be more profitable and share those proceeds with shareholders. So it was a whole system that was in place. OK? And it wasn't bad intention. It was just the way it was. OK? Now that's changed. And you have a

all these different nations in a race now to try to reclaim their supply chains. Now turns out the United States is ahead of, let's say, Europe for a number of reasons, but primarily in Washington, DC. And I'd like to give us some credit. think we know that folks in Washington, DC are going to rare earth exchanges every day.

There is an understanding for a need of industrial policy. Now, again, not just with the mining. It sort of started with that, right? ⁓ we need to get to Greenland. need, you know, we need rare earths, right? And that's what you do. You mine it, right? But no, it's more, the analogy is more like oil. It's like refining of oil, right? Where we need to refine these materials and we need to be able to convert it to magnets.

or other components in the assemblies that go in various high-tech goods. And it's a national security issue. So what's happened over this past year, the MP materials deal where the Department of Defense of Pentagon essentially is taking 15 % interest in this company. It's a national treasure trove, right? Now there are issues with that we write about, we get into. We want to keep it upbeat today, positive. So I will say that

It's a good thing. It demonstrates that the government understands the severity of the situation. And there's other deals. There's the Re-element Technologies Deal with Vulcan ⁓ Elements, which is a new startup magnet ⁓ company. There's Phoenix Tailings. We've interviewed them. They're moving into refining, really impressive group of people out of New England.

others that we can talk about, but it's really exciting. And what feels good to me, and working with both of you, is that we've been, I feel we've been part of this journey. I think we've had some influence, I'd like to think that. And I think we're not done influencing.

Dustin Olsen (09:22)
Absolutely. So speaking of perspective, So you were talking about the government waking up to certain needs that they have to take action. ran a poll on LinkedIn of people's perceptions and go ahead and talk about that. What was the question? What were the answers? What was the outcome?

Justas Valciukas (09:39)
Yeah, absolutely. the poll that we did, the question was, what's the future of critical minerals? And I was really impressed because there so many people were voting and commenting and really participating in this poll.

And we have the results. 43 % said that Western supply rise. Right, 43%. And I think we've seen the green tech and recycling booming. We have a lot of recycling friends and companies that we talk to. It's only 11 % focused on green tech recycling. 31 % was China, stays dominant. So we still have people that

You know say that China stays dominant and 15 % it says more trade conflict But I think what I've seen in this poll saying that Western supply rise more more than 40 % almost 50 % of people It just shows how positive the audience is and that you know with mo use and all of those deals that are happening You know a cloud resources. They are building a heavy rare earth plan here in Louisiana. So it's just so

so exciting with all those deals that are happening and people are being very very positive with the Western supply chain.

Dustin Olsen (10:53)
Absolutely. And I would say that we are equally as optimistic, you know, that the Western world will rise to the occasion. But I would also say we're we're we're critical. We're realistic. Danny would probably say, yeah, we're going to see more trade conflict. China's dominance will persist. But it is exciting to see that and that interest in this industry.

is very prevalent, definitely in the last few months even. Daniel, any thoughts on that poll, the results of that poll?

Daniel O'Connor (11:21)
Yeah, no, I think it makes a lot of sense. And I think that there is a lot of positive attitudes and energy out there. I think it's important to understand, though, that industrial policy for supply chain development is being embraced as an emergency. Again, it's an emergency reaction. But that's what it takes, right? I think on the China dominance, there's a good

percentage that are still focusing on that and as they should because as we've written about you know, you don't go from 90 % or so market share 85 % market share of refining To you know under 50 % overnight that's going to take some years. Okay, and there is some you know Irrational exuberance out there in some forecasts. Okay that we have seen

On the other hand, if we look at refineries that are in the works, as you just mentioned, one, but we've got, ⁓ again, MP received $150 million to build out more capability around heavy rare earth refining. And again, will caveat, heavy rare earth elements are the real bottleneck, and we can go into that more. But other…

Other groups are also, Re-Element is involved with recycling and refining and they now have to scale that up. There's a group up in Saskatchewan that's Saskatchewan Research Council is involved with refining. They've made some announcements. A group in Australia, they're actually the, it's an association involving energy and nuclear energy has.

commissioned a refinery over there. It's tax at the state level and publicly funded. there's, again, at Clara, they have a Virginia Tech pilot and then this Louisiana effort that they have announced. you know, there is a recognition that this is a supply chain problem. It's not a mining problem, okay?

and I'll stop there for a second. Does that make sense to both of you?

Dustin Olsen (13:25)
No, absolutely. And something that we've shared over and over here on the podcast and definitely on our website. ⁓ Yeah, so Isis, any thoughts on?

Justas Valciukas (13:35)
Yeah.

Yeah, absolutely. So Dustin and Daniel, I know you both did quite a few podcasts with recycling companies. So you probably have lot of ins and outs about recycling, green tech.

How do you see moving forward 2026? We have this poll that says 11 % focusing on future for critical minerals. Just 11 % people voted that green tech and recycling will move forward with future of critical minerals. Where do you see the recycling moving forward in 2026?

Dustin Olsen (14:11)
Wow. Hey, the tables have just turned right there. You just as interviewing us, Daniel. Um,

Justas Valciukas (14:15)
Yeah.

Daniel O'Connor (14:15)
Absolutely, and

so he should. He's in the middle of it all. Real quickly, Dustin, I'll start that. It's sort of a quandary and somewhat of a paradox for me. I it makes total sense. Recycling and technology disruption, not only recycling, but also non-rare earth magnets, like Neuron Magnetics, I think it is. ⁓ They're developing non-rare earth magnets.

Part of the way out of this is disruption, both technological disruption with ⁓ new types of magnets as well as recycling, innovative recycling. We have been interviewing and I suggest to people that they check out some of our interviews with recycling companies, especially those in India. We've spoken with a couple really impressive companies, okay, and where they're thinking holistically about even e-commerce where

across India, they have online access where you can sell your electronics back so they can take it and recycle it. It's difficult. The number we hear often is only about 1 % of, for example, rare earth magnets are derived from recycled material. I'm not sure if that's still accurate. It could be a bit higher. But I think there are a series of challenges. one is, you

technologically at scale. I there's different approaches that are being experimented with. You know, we have the Apple deal with MP where up to half a billion dollars is gonna be allocated into recycling technologies. So clearly big players see the need and interest. We know Department of Defense through our sources is very keen on recycling. But you know, why

Does it take so long to take off? I I think that we're having issues with even basic recycling of other materials. I don't think the United States does a great job on that front. I could be wrong, but I think it's something to take a real serious look at. And for content, I think it's something that we need to spend more time on addressing exactly what, where is the status with this? What are some more granular numbers?

and what are some key hindrances that need to be overcome. Dustin, any further thoughts on that?

Dustin Olsen (16:26)
Yeah. So to answer the question specifically, what does the future look like? Is it as bleak as our poll results reflect? you know, based on the conversations we've had here on the podcasts, I'd say no. In fact, there is a lot of optimism. There's a lot of companies that feel very confident with their, their IP that they have and

But the challenge is time. The challenge is securing their feedstock. know, the material to recycle. But thinking about some of the stuff that they have to extract, Rare earth elements are just a small portion of the technology that we have. And there's a whole bunch of other stuff that goes into this material that has to be recycled. so the challenge is…

How do you dismantle it to a point where you can extract the small bit of reverse and not only do that, but do it efficiently and at scale. So it's another time thing. It's another funding issue. And everyone throughout the entire supply chain has that problem. They don't have enough time to move fast enough to do it at scale, let alone the money to pull it off. So do I think it's possible?

Yes, I even one of the our guests here on the show, they said critical minerals, some of the things that they're recycling contribute 70 % back into the supply chain. They're like, so why can't we do it with rivers? Like, why can't we? And so that is their mission is to take it from the one 2 % that Daniel just said that we're we're seeing currently into the 50 plus percent back into the supply chain just through recycling.

Daniel O'Connor (18:05)
Well, if I can just chime in on something, I'll just throw a question back to you both. know, one key declaration has been that, you know, given all the deals that have happened, MP materials and their 10X program, which is going to, you know, generate up to 10,000, I think, tons or so of magnets, there's an assumption in Washington that at least among some

circles that by the end of 2026 we'll have more magnets or we'll have sufficient magnets that will start to wrestle control back from China. And based on what we've learned, that's highly questionable. I'll put that back to you both, like the actual production of rare earth magnets. Because remember, we have a heavy rare earth bottleneck.

Justas Valciukas (18:37)
.

Daniel O'Connor (18:55)
98 % or so of those of that material is processed in China. I want you to think about that. And for any defense related magnets, at least for now, you need the heavy rare earth terbium, disrobium in those magnets. So again, 98%. And remember a big chunk of the feedstock is coming out of Myanmar, right? On our rankings.

that those rebels are at the top of the list, right? So that's quite a bit of a challenge, isn't it?

Dustin Olsen (19:27)
huge, huge challenge. my thoughts is 90 % belongs to China. A lot of businesses that we're meeting, we're talking to, they're confident in what they can deliver to turn things around. I think the question still has always been scale, feedstock, you know.

who are their partners to supply them if it's not gonna be China based. But if there's one recurring trend throughout the last 12 months of this podcast is nothing happens fast, right? We could turn the tide, could get companies better funded so they can move faster, deliver sooner, but still.

time. Like it takes time to build up facility. It takes time to train people takes time to to get to a point where they're profitable and and doing and delivering what they said they can do. That's that's one thing I've heard over and over is there's just not enough time. So you says what do think?

Justas Valciukas (20:27)
I agree with

you, Dustin, for sure. I mean, we have a lot of people that come to us, right, as a marketplace where they have a lot of questions. One of the questions that they ask is related to magnets. Where can we find the magnets? How can we buy the X-China magnets? It's, you know, one of the biggest challenges that we have right now. We do have people that produce magnets and companies that produce magnets, but is that enough for

all of the demand that we have right now, especially for ex-China, I don't think so. And it's a huge, huge struggle right now in the US as well as other places ex-China where they do need magnets. They just don't know where to find it.

Daniel O'Connor (21:09)
That's right. And I'll just say, you know, we see a lot of activity of magnet manufacturing, planning, or even production. there's, you know, again, PERMAG, which is a merger of three different entities, including EEC. There's Arnold Magnetic Technologies. There's NoviOn Magnetics, which is in Texas, which is doing really good stuff.

There's the German company Vacuum Smells, which has set up a plant in South Carolina. There's also JS Link. It's a Korean company building a plant in Georgia. Another Korean cable giant recently announced their intention to build out ⁓ magnet capability in the United States. There's a company, Neon Performance Materials up in Canada, that's producing magnets in Europe.

But again, if we look at the heavy rare earth element that you need for high performing, know, magnets in very hot environments, for example, of the type you need for the Department of Defense, there just isn't enough around. mean, again, MPs trying to ramp up, there's companies like, you know, Aclara, Brazilian Rare Earths, Northern

minerals in Australia. Malaysia is a key player. Okay, Malaysia has these clays that have some heavy rare earths. there's ⁓ a mine there we've written about, Southern Alliance Mining. There's a company that we know of that has a partial American ownership called DTEK that's working in stealth mode, know, to some extent in Malaysia. So countries like Malaysia become very important. Countries like Vietnam come.

become very important. have heavy rare earth deposits and but they just announced that we're not just going to export raw product. You got to come in and invest in refining if you want to work with us. So it's going to be a very fascinating 2026 and we'll commit to continue to provide as objective and unbiased information as possible. We're obviously biased in favor of

Justas Valciukas (22:55)
you

Daniel O'Connor (23:09)
building out a supply chain here at home.

Dustin Olsen (23:11)
Absolutely. Well, guys, this is very insightful. And as part of our 50th episode celebration here and talking about what's gone on in last year, I would like for you to, I'd love to hear, we've interviewed some incredible people here on the show and the work that they're doing is equally as incredible and the team that surrounds them is incredible. think about, and I would like you to share with us.

What are some of your favorite episodes, one or two, that have stood out to you from the last year and why? And I'll start to give you guys a second to think about it. The couple of shows that we did and the people we interviewed that really stood out to me were the companies that were dedicated to making the process more efficient to be unique, break out of the box. So one would be Coke Modular.

And their entire focus was on making the refining process more efficient and more compact. I thought that was incredible. Just listening to those guys talk about what they have, how it works was truly mind blowing to me. And it was more mind blowing to hear about what is currently in place and why they're trying to improve it. Another show that stood out to me was

the interview with AML Magnetics, CEO Wade Sensi. Their process and how they're trying to make magnets in a unique way, a more efficient way is really exciting. And I hope to see those guys become mainstream soon. Daniel, any episodes that sound to you?

Daniel O'Connor (24:36)
Well, you I'm biased here. love every one of them that we're doing. It's been an honor and a pleasure to be involved with this and learn along the way. It's exciting. there's been one with Arafura's CEO, Daryl, was really insightful. He's very much a pragmatic, execution-minded person. I learned an incredible amount in that episode.

Brazilian Rare Earth with ⁓ their Bernardo, their CEO. deep wisdom, he's been involved with mining and again, that was early on. We were learning quite a bit. I want to group, we've had a series of episodes involving startups in India that are either involved with recycling or most recently non-

rare earth magnets for motors and I've really appreciated the entrepreneurial spirit, know, what's going on in India and how. And again, that's part of our mission is the ex-China supply chain. it's really, India is a very important place. It's the fourth biggest economy I believe now. I think it's the most populated nation now in the world. I think they surpassed China.

I really appreciated Harriet Hagerman, who is an elected official for Wyoming. She had strong feelings about ⁓ industrial supply chain rebuilding in Wyoming. So we've had incredible experiences with a lot of just very impressive people over the past year.

Dustin Olsen (26:04)
Absolutely. Youssef, what comes to your mind?

Justas Valciukas (26:06)
Well, I'm not going to pick favorites, but I can tell you just a short story how I found out about you guys and Rare Earth Exchanges and your podcast. I still remember vividly, I was looking for a podcast to learn about Rare Earth and ⁓ critical minerals. And I was in the gym just scrolling through, I believe it was Spotify and trying to find

a good podcast and your podcast came out and it was maybe episode number four or five so it was a while ago in 2025 but I started listening.

every single Friday morning, because we have on Thursday at six o'clock central time, it comes out every Friday morning when I go to the gym, I have my headphones and I'm just listening to the podcast. So I love it. I love I love what you do for for the the community. Educating people, you know, like myself, I started learning a lot about Rare Earths in 2025 and and

you know, heads down, it was about your podcast, what I learned from your conversations with the audience that you have with people that you bring to your podcast. but yeah, if it, you know, I would think James Kennedy, he's OG, the podcast that you had with him, it was really interesting. There are a bunch of podcasts that I love, but…

Yeah, I guess I'm not gonna pick my favorite right now.

Dustin Olsen (27:32)
All right, that's like asking a parent who their favorite child is. ⁓ They're all the favorite. So you guys, thank you so much for being on the show. And more importantly, thank you for being a part of this journey. And that is for everyone who's listening to this show as well. And thank you for listening to the show, for being a part of this with us. honestly, like and subscribe this episode, help us get that extra visibility.

Daniel O'Connor (27:35)
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Justas Valciukas (27:39)
you

Dustin Olsen (27:58)
from just by being interested wherever you listen to this podcast. And if you don't want to miss anything else that's going on in this industry, subscribe to our newsletter over at our website. You're going to get daily updates about what's going on. And from an investor perspective, being in the know is the best way to go. So you guys, thanks again for a great 2025 here at Rare Earth Exchanges. I am…

beyond excited to see what's going to happen here in 2026. And thank you for joining us.

Justas Valciukas (28:28)
Thank you Dustin, thank you Daniel.

Daniel O'Connor (28:28)
Thanks guys.