China Rare Earth Exports Fall 10% Through July as Beijing Says Market Conditions Are Improving

Highlights

• China exported 34,706 metric tons of rare earths January–July 2026, down 10% year over year, with imports also declining 5.5%
• China Rare Earth Group posted a 46.5% profit increase despite lower revenue, signaling stronger pricing and policy-driven downstream demand
• The 10% export decline obscures product-level controls on critical heavy rare earths like dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium
• November 10 expiration of China's suspension of certain October 2025 export controls adds urgency for Western buyers to monitor licensing approvals
• Western buyers should track which specific elements and product forms declined, not just aggregate tonnage, to assess true supply risk

China exported 34,706 metric tons of rare earths from January through July 2026, down 10% year over year, including 4,223.5 tons in July, according to Chinese customs data reported by Global Times journalist Zhang Weilan. Imports reached 63,323 tons, down 5.5%. Meanwhile, listed China Rare Earth Group reported first-half revenue of RMB1.647 billion (about US$247 million) and attributable net profit of RMB237 million (US$35.6 million), with profit rising 46.5% despite lower revenue.

REEx Insight | China's Export Numbers Tell Only Half the Story

The 10% decline matters—but investors should not mistake gross rare-earth tonnage for the availability of specific strategic elements. A tonne of cerium is not a tonne of terbium. China's leverage increasingly resides in product-level control over Dy, Tb, Y and other medium/heavy rare earths, plus the separation, metals, alloys, and magnets sitting downstream. This is particularly important approaching the November 10 expiration of China's suspension of certain October 2025 export controls. Earlier controls remain relevant, and licensing can influence availability independently of aggregate export tonnage.

Beijing's Version—and the Missing Context

Global Times, a Chinese state-affiliated publication, emphasizes Beijing's position that export controls are lawful, prudent, non-discriminatory, and designed to accommodate legitimate civilian trade. That is China's official narrative—not independent evidence of frictionless supply.

The more revealing corporate signal may be China Rare Earth Group's improving profitability despite falling revenue. Management attributed stronger conditions to policy support and downstream demand.

For Great Powers Era 2.0™, REEx sees the larger pattern: China can manage upstream resources while simultaneously strengthening downstream industries consuming them.

Western buyers should therefore ask: What exactly was exported? Which elements and product forms declined? How quickly are licenses being approved? And how much material is instead being absorbed by China's expanding magnet, robotics, EV, and defense ecosystems?

Aggregate tonnage cannot answer those questions.

Source Disclaimer: Global Times is published under the People’s Daily Press, publisher of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Its reporting should therefore be understood within the context of China’s state and Party media system. Rare Earth Exchanges treats factual data cited from identifiable government or corporate sources separately from political commentary, interpretation, or official narratives contained in Global Times coverage and, where possible, independently verifies material claims against primary or non-Chinese sources