Spodumene Trade Reaches 6.8 Million Tonnes-China Still Holds the Lithium Bottleneck

Highlights

• Global seaborne spodumene trade reached 6.8 million tonnes in 2025, a 28% increase from 5.3 million tonnes in 2024.
• Despite diversified mining across Australia, Africa, and Latin America, most spodumene still flows into China's chemical-processing system for conversion.
• Zimbabwe alone exported 1.128 million tonnes of spodumene in 2025, reinforcing China's dominance as the incumbent lithium-conversion hub.
• 6.8 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate does not equal 6.8 million tonnes of lithium—grade, recovery, and conversion losses must be factored in.
• India's reported emergence as a major lepidolite exporter to the US lacks verified cargo-level customs evidence and may reflect trade code misclassification.

Drewry Maritime Research estimates global seaborne spodumene trade reached 6.8 million tonnes in 2025, up 28% from 5.3 million tonnes in 2024. The increase supports dry-bulk shipping, but Rare Earth Exchanges® finds the stronger investor signal downstream: diversified mines still feed a lithium-conversion system centered heavily on China. The energy transition is changing what ships carry. It has not yet changed who captures the strategic value.

REEx Insight: Count Lithium, Not Just Cargo

Drewry’s shipping thesis is credible. Spodumene is becoming a structurally relevant cargo as electric vehicles, commercial fleets, and stationary storage expand battery demand. Its estimated vessel mix—46% Panamax, 34% Supramax, and 20% Handysize—shows how parcel size, port constraints, and voyage distance distribute that trade.

Yet 6.8 million tonnes of concentrate is not 6.8 million tonnes of lithium. At a representative 6% lithium-oxide grade, that cargo would contain roughly one million tonnes of theoretical lithium-carbonate equivalent before conversion losses. Investors must examine grade, recovery, moisture, freight, conversion charges, and realized price—not celebrate vessel tonnage alone.

More ships can also deepen dependence. Zimbabwe exported 1.128 million tonnes of spodumene during 2025, with most material entering China’s chemical-processing system. Diversified mining without diversified conversion simply supplies the incumbent hub more efficiently.

The Cargo Manifest Has Blind Spots

Drewry correctly identifies Australia, Africa, and Latin America as expanding supply regions. However, its assertion that India has become a major lepidolite exporter—largely to the United States—needs cargo-level customs evidence. Trade codes can combine lithium minerals with mica and related materials, inviting misclassification.

Coal’s “inevitable” decline is likewise a forecast, not a settled shipping fact. Lithium cargoes are growing rapidly but remain minute beside coal and iron ore.

Sources: Drewry Maritime Research (opens in a new tab); Zimbabwe’s 2025 spodumene exports (opens in a new tab).