Tungsten Supply Gap Persists Through 2030?S&P Data Reveals a Deeper Feedstock Squeeze

Highlights

• S&P Global projects only ~34,000 tonnes WO₃ of ex-China mine capacity by 2030 against ~50,000 tonnes of primary demand, leaving a 16,000-tonne gap.
• APT CIF prices surged from $83/kg in January to $340/kg in July 2026, yet economics are no longer the main constraint—execution is.
• Ex-China APT refining capacity could reach 70,000 tonnes WO₃ by 2030 while mine supply lags, creating a fierce competition for limited concentrate and scrap.
• Recycling supplies roughly 60% of ex-China tungsten output, and long-term offtake deals like Sangdong's 21-year contract with GTP further tighten available spot feedstock.
• China controls ~79% of tungsten mining and ~85% of APT refining, yet imports ~30% of the concentrate feeding its own refineries—signaling a global feedstock squeeze.