Colorado School of Mines Study Finds Rare-Earth Magnet Disruption Could Hammer U.S. EV Production: While Imports Fill the Gap

Highlights

• A CGE model shows a 25% tariff on NdFeB magnet imports could collapse domestic EV production while imported EVs fill essentially all U.S. demand.
• Wind generation is less immediately affected because the system can shift to imported turbines and alternative technologies.
• Combining magnet import tariffs with domestic production subsidies can make U.S. magnet manufacturing viable, but trade-offs persist elsewhere in the economy.
• The study warns that fixing one supply-chain chokepoint can simply move rare-earth dependency downstream into finished products like EVs and turbines.
• Research was supported by the DOE Critical Materials Innovation Hub and used a 2023 U.S. economic baseline.