REEx Price Watch - One Supply Chain, Two Imperfect Price Systems As of Oct 2, 2026

Highlights

• Chinese domestic rare earth prices and ex-China security-of-supply prices have diverged dramatically, with dysprosium showing a 3–17× premium outside China
• Terbium oxide assessed at $7,500/kg CIF North America by S&P Global, with some small-volume transactions reported above $12,000/kg
• Yttrium illustrates the ultimate market failure: a ~$8–10/kg Chinese quote is largely meaningless to Western buyers who cannot obtain qualified material
• NdPr remains the most functional of the four elements tracked, with ex-China prices only 1.1–1.4× above Chinese domestic references
• Price is increasingly a measure of access—origin, export legality, purity, OEM qualification, and delivery speed now shape rare earth costs as much as the underlying oxide