Brazil Courts China and U.S. Investment to Process Rare Earths at Home

Highlights

• Brazil holds 21 million tonnes of rare-earth reserves but produced only ~2,000 tonnes in 2025, revealing a massive reserve-to-production gap.
• Lynas Rare Earths agreed to acquire Brazil-focused Meteoric Resources and its Caldeira project for roughly US$672 million, with potential downstream processing in Brazil.
• President Lula wants domestic value addition but openness to Chinese technology risks replicating old supply-chain dependencies under new geography.
• Rare earths have entered Brazil's presidential race, with Lula and Bolsonaro-linked factions offering competing visions for U.S.- vs. China-aligned supply chains.
• Investors are warned that processing technology, permitting, metallurgy, and offtake agreements will matter more than campaign rhetoric.