Is the Defense-Tech Boom Running Into a Supply-Chain Wall? Center15's Warning Meets Great Powers Era 2.0

Highlights

• Center15 Capital's analysis shifts defense tech risk from proof-of-concept to scale-execution, as capital floods drones, autonomy, and counter-UAS sectors
• REEx's Transition Vulnerability Window warns investors not to confuse government appropriations, groundbreakings, or planned factories with qualified, scaled production
• FY2027 defense plans target $114B for missiles and munitions, yet CSIS estimates Tomahawk, THAAD, and Patriot inventories could take three or more years to recover
• The most valuable Great Powers Era 2.0 investments may be obscure suppliers controlling bottleneck materials like heavy rare earths and specialty magnets beneath major weapons platforms
• Western nations remain dependent on Chinese rare earth supply chains, meaning deterrence partly rests on supply chains adversaries still control