Aerospace Industries Association Warns 2027 Minerals Deadline Outpaces Defense Supply

Highlights

• AIA report warns aerospace-grade critical mineral processing and magnet capacity won't be ready until 2028 or later, pushing defense qualification to 2029–2030.
• REEx's Transition Vulnerability Window framework maps the dangerous gap between China dependence and compliant, customer-qualified domestic alternatives.
• Executive Order 14415 allows conditional waivers past January 2027, buying time but not closing the capability gap for defense suppliers.
• Provenance risks can hide several tiers below final assembly, meaning public disclosures may not reveal full program exposure for primes like Lockheed Martin.
• Investors should test whether suppliers can finance qualification and deliver accepted material before scarcity premiums erode returns.