India's $700 Billion Illusion: China Holds the Keys to Its Factories-and the Clock Is Ticking

Highlights

• China controls 90%+ of rare earth refining and sintered magnet production, giving it leverage over Indian manufacturers despite India's $700B in foreign exchange reserves.
• Bajaj Auto's Chetak electric scooter faced production threats from China's April 2025 rare earth export controls, illustrating how small components can constrain major manufacturers.
• India approved a ₹7,280 crore rare earth permanent magnet program in 2025, but the Transition Vulnerability Window means announced capacity offers little immediate protection.
• REEx's Great Powers Era 2.0 thesis argues lasting national power requires sovereign or allied control of the full critical-material value chain, from mining through finished components.
• REEx proposes Qualified Supply Coverage as a metric to distinguish genuine industrial security from incomplete capacity announcements in rare earth investment analysis.