China Rare Earth Industry Association Reports 263.6 Price Index as Heavy Rare Earth Markets Diverge

Highlights

• CREIA's October 2026 price index hit 263.6, up 163.6% from its 2010 baseline, with heavy rare earths like terbium and dysprosium moving in opposite directions.
• REEx identifies three distinct price layers: published Chinese reference prices, executable delivered prices, and premiums for supply secured outside Chinese-controlled chains.
• U.S. government protections for MP Materials at $110/kg NdPr and Serra Verde's heavy rare earth floors are contract-specific arrangements, not industry-wide benchmarks.
• Arafura's new five-year offtake agreement referencing international seaborne pricing signals emerging ex-China benchmark contracting, though no liquid Western spot market yet exists.
• Rare earth pricing agencies face credibility questions due to thin transaction samples, trader influence, and opaque defense contracts, driving REEx's push for greater transparency.