Cobalt Supply Shock Could Cost China $61.4 Billion as Study Exposes Strategic Weakness

Highlights

• Researchers modeled 100,000 risk simulations across 76 supply entities, finding an 80% cobalt supply contraction could cut China's 2027 GDP by 0.29%
• China dominates cobalt refining but depends heavily on DRC-sourced ore, creating upstream vulnerability despite downstream industrial strength
• Slower EV adoption under disruption scenarios could raise transport emissions by 141 million tonnes, complicating China's energy transition goals
• The unreviewed SSRN preprint was funded by China's National Natural Science Foundation and involves researchers from the State Council Development Research Center
• Western nations could exploit China's cobalt dependence through alternative supply chain partnerships, though weaponizing shortages risks damaging their own industries