Pakistan Courts U.S. Critical-Mineral Capital as China Anchors Its Mining and Defense Ecosystem

Highlights

• Pakistan's Reko Diq holds ~7.3M tonnes of contained copper and 13M oz gold in probable reserves, making it the country's most credible mineral asset—but Barrick slowed development in 2026 due to security risks.
• Despite a high-profile October 2025 shipment to the U.S., Pakistan has no demonstrated commercial rare-earth mine-to-magnet chain and was not identified as a rare-earth producer by the USGS in 2024.
• China supplies 80% of Pakistan's major arms imports and anchored its mining ecosystem through geological cooperation since 2010 and a January 2026 forum involving 70+ Chinese companies.
• India is building a mine-to-magnet industrial strategy backed by a World Bank $5B partnership, while Pakistan is monetizing geological optionality before proving commercial deposits.
• Pakistan's military is central to its minerals strategy, with FWO as the U.S. Strategic Metals counterparty and Army Chief Asim Munir personally involved in 2025 minerals diplomacy.