Boston Consulting Group Flags Three Critical Mineral Supply Risks as REEx Identifies Deeper China Exposure

Highlights

• BCG flags three hidden supply chain risks: low-cost exposure, hidden supplier dependencies, and false diversification across China-linked processors.
• REEx research adds that China controls separation, alloying, and magnet production chokepoints that export licensing can disrupt regardless of mineral availability.
• Western alternative supply projects may not reach reliable scale until 2028–2030, creating what REEx calls the Transition Vulnerability Window.
• Announced capacity is not dependable supply; investors must verify output, customer qualification, feedstock, and financing before relying on alternatives.