China Gallium and Germanium Export Controls Put Western Buyers on a November 27, 2026 Clock

Highlights

• China produced ~99% of world primary gallium in 2024 and ~77% of refined germanium in 2023, giving Beijing extraordinary strategic leverage over Western defense and tech supply chains.
• Western gallium prices exceed $1,800/kg versus ~$245/kg inside China, signaling severe scarcity premiums driven by export controls rather than geology.
• Key alternative projects from Alcoa, 5N Plus, Teck Resources, METLEN and Korea Zinc are advancing, but most won't reach full capacity until 2027–2029, leaving a critical vulnerability window.
• The real chokepoint is refinery and smelter capacity, not mining deposits—Western governments must fund the entire processing chain to close the supply gap.
• China's suspension of tougher U.S.-specific restrictions expires November 27, 2026; the underlying 2023 global licensing regime for gallium and germanium remains in force regardless.