Highlights

• China issues formal warnings to South Korean manufacturers about exporting rare earth elements to US military and defense contractors.
• Beijing controls over 60% of rare earth exports and 90% of global processing capacity, signaling strategic material dominance.
• Potential emergence of a 'Rare Earth Cold War' with surgical control over critical materials replacing traditional economic warfare tactics.

In a calculated escalation of its global resource strategy, China has reportedly issued formal warnings to South Korean high-tech manufacturers, instructing them not to export any equipment containing Chinese rare earth elements to U.S. military or defense contractors.

The report, originally published by Korea Economy and reiterated by Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx), indicates that violators may face penalties, signaling China’s shift toward indirect rare earth restrictions that target third-party supply chain nodes rather than issuing broad export bans. The implications are immediate: South Korea, which exported over $12 billion in defense-related components to the U.S. in 2024, now faces significant compliance burdens, and rare earth oxide prices have already spiked 8% globally.

This emerging form of “supply chain statecraft” underscores Beijing’s continued dominance in rare earths, controlling over 60% of exports and up to 90% of global processing capacity. With rare earths indispensable to advanced weapon systems, semiconductors, and satellites, the Pentagon is now scrambling for alternatives.

Analysts at the Global Risk Institute warn that this could mark the beginning of a “Rare Earth Cold War,” in which surgical control over materials replaces tariffs or conventional economic warfare. The U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed active monitoring of the situation, but short-term substitution remains virtually impossible given global dependence on China’s processing infrastructure.

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