Highlights

• Trump announces a vague trade deal with China involving rare earth export licenses, with no concrete guarantees.
• The US agrees to halt visa restrictions in exchange for ambiguous commitments.
• Tariff levels remain volatile.
• China continues to dominate 85% of global rare earth processing, maintaining strategic economic leverage.

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After launching the most aggressive global trade war in modern American history, President Donald Trump has now proclaimed victory again. This time, he says the U.S. has “signed a deal” with China. But once again, there are no details, no signatures from Xi Jinping, and no concrete assurances about what matters most: access to rare earths.

Trump’s so-called deal appears to be a rehash of an earlier framework discussed in London and Geneva, with China agreeing only to “accelerate” the approval of rare earth export licenses. This comes after Beijing imposed permit restrictions in April on seven key rare earth elements, rattling global supply chains for electric vehicles, robotics, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems. Now, Chinese officials say they’ll approve applications “in accordance with the law”—which they control.

The recent news was covered by numerous media outlets, including the Associated Press. (opens in a new tab)

So what exactly did America get?

In exchange for vague commitments, the U.S. agreed to halt visa revocations for Chinese students and potentially ease other restrictions. There’s no binding mechanism for rare earth flows. No long-term guarantees. Just another ambiguous handshake.

Meanwhile, Trump touts a 55% tariff level on Chinese goods—an inflated figure that includes older duties from his first term. In reality, the trade war has brought sky-high volatility: the U.S. hiked tariffs to 145% before reducing them to 30%, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, then eased them to 10%. Today’s economic scoreboard isn’t encouraging: U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025. Chinese factory profits dropped over 9% in May.

What Retail Investors Should Ask:

• Has the U.S. achieved true rare earth supply security, or merely increased its reliance on China’s discretion? Be critical here, don’t just listen and trust the government.
• Where are the investments in domestic refining, midstream capacity, and off-take guarantees that would actually reduce exposure?
• What happens when China again throttles exports, this time during a contract?

This “deal” is less a geopolitical breakthrough than a tactical pause. Beijing still dominates over 85% of global rare earth processing—and isn’t relinquishing control. The White House may celebrate headlines, but without structural reforms or industrial strategy, the real balance of power hasn’t shifted.

Source: Associated Press, June 27, 2025 | Reporter: Elaine Kurtenbach Bottom of Form