Brazil Enacts R$5 Billion Critical-Minerals Credit Framework as Runoff Opens U.S. Opportunity

Highlights

• Brazil enacted Law 15,506 on September 16, 2026, capping critical-mineral processing tax credits at R$5 billion across 2030–2034.
• A Bolsonaro victory in the October 25 runoff could accelerate U.S.-Brazil mineral cooperation, but political alignment alone cannot guarantee qualified supply.
• The law allows up to R$1 billion annually to cover 20% of qualifying processing costs, plus a R$2 billion loan-backing fund.
• Investors should watch for funded construction, sustained recovery rates, and binding offtake agreements before treating statutory ceilings as production guarantees.