China Critical-Materials Study Finds Beijing Can Turn Supply-Chain Dominance Into Strategic Power

Highlights

• China processed 79% of cobalt refining and 95% of manganese chemicals despite mining less than 2% of primary supply, illustrating value-chain dominance over raw geology.
• Export controls create both a chokepoint effect restricting access and a panopticon effect collecting detailed intelligence on foreign supply chains and end users.
• Japan reduced rare-earth dependence on China from above 90% to below 60% through sustained public-private investment, stockpiling, and patience across commodity cycles.
• The report warns that subsidizing Western mines alone will not solve supply-chain vulnerability without competitive separation, refining, and downstream manufacturing.
• Analysts argue strategic materials now carry a geopolitical price distinct from their chemistry price, pointing toward a new pricing architecture for allied supply chains.