U.S. Caps COMAC Aircraft-Part Licenses - Can Jet Engines Break China's Rare Earth Leverage?

Highlights

• The U.S. is slowing aircraft-part licenses to COMAC, explicitly using aviation as leverage in critical minerals negotiations with China.
• COMAC's C919 depends on CFM International's LEAP-1C engine; a 2025 suspension contributed to production targets being cut from 75 to just 15 delivered aircraft.
• China's rare earth leverage spans defense, autos, robotics, and semiconductors—giving Beijing a broader blast radius than Washington's aviation card.
• REEx modeling identifies a race to eliminate dependencies: whoever removes their chokepoint first materially weakens the other's bargaining power.
• Replacing a commercial turbofan is brutally difficult; CFM's LEAP fleet has 104.8 million operating hours China cannot instantly replicate.