U.S. Electricity Transition Pushes Dysprosium, Terbium and Tellurium Toward Supply-Chain Stress

Highlights

• Dartmouth researchers modeled 61 electricity scenarios through 2050, finding tellurium, dysprosium and terbium face the highest supply-chain stress under rapid decarbonization.
• Under the highest-demand scenarios, mean peak U.S. electricity-sector demand for tellurium, dysprosium and terbium exceeds today's entire global annual production.
• Approximately 95% of U.S. rare-earth requirements are currently imported, with more than half sourced from China, amplifying supply concentration risk.
• The study is a stress test, not a forecast—it holds current production fixed and excludes future mine development, recycling, substitution, and EV or defense demand.
• Authors identify vulnerability rather than inevitable scarcity, calling for dynamic modeling that accounts for new mines, ex-China processing, and material substitution.